Front Porch FootballMississippi State 2021 Season Preview
Quote of the Day: “…there ain’t but one color that matters here, and that color is maroon.” – Coach Sylvester Croom
by Chris Paschal
The Pirate is finally in the SEC. After years of rumors that Mike Leach would return to the SEC (this time as a head coach), he made his debut donning the maroon-and-white in an historic upset of LSU in Baton Rouge. Unfortunately for Mississippi State, that was the highlight of the season, which the Bulldogs ended with a 4-7 record. Some good pieces return for what is an important Year Two in Starkville.
Offense
The Mike Leach Air Raid passing attack is based on two fundamentals: spread the ball around to multiple receivers, and punish teams for playing man coverage. It worked in the Big 12. It worked in the PAC 12. Will it work in the SEC? Leach is known for burning offenses to the ground in order to rebuild them in his image (see below: Kylin Hill departure). Does he have enough of his people and enough tricks up his sleeve to win more ball games in 2021 than he did in 2020?
Departed Notable Starters
KJ Costello – QB – Graduation
Dareuan Parker – OL – Graduation
Kylin Hill – RB – NFL
Osirus Mitchell – WR – Graduation/NFL
Quarterback
I listed KJ Costello as a departed starter solely out of respect for his record-breaking performance in Tiger Stadium. Because by the end of the season, this was Will Rogers’ (6-2, 210) team. The Mississippi native had one of the better freshman campaigns last season, passing for close to 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns. Rogers has all the tools Mike Leach looks for in a passer. First, he has quick hands and hips. Like a shortstop turning a double play, Rogers is able to quickly gather the snap and get it outside to a receiver.
(Matt Wyatt, one of the better Mississippi State analysts, does a great breakdown of one of Rogers’ red zone fade passes for a touchdown against Vanderbilt.) But it’s not just his hands and hips that make him a great Air Raid quarterback. It’s also his ability to process defenses. As mentioned earlier, this passing attack is at its best when defenses play man coverage. Nonetheless, Mike Leach’s offense can still be effective against a zone. It requires a patient quarterback who can take underneath concessions, while also using his eyes to freeze defenders on the outside to allow for over-the-middle strikes. Some plays against Georgia (again, broken down by Matt Wyatt) make you smile if you are a passing offense enthusiast. Rogers has great hands, throws an accurate ball, processes the defense like an upperclassman, and is athletic within the pocket.
And even so, Leach has some great options behind Rogers. Oddly enough, one of those options comes by way of Oxford, Mississippi. Well, sort of. Transfer quarterback Jack Abraham (6-0, 205), a passing legend at Southern Miss the past few seasons, enters this fall with a decent shot at winning the quarterback job. Both quarterbacks can get a little trigger happy (especially Abraham), so I think the nod will go to Rogers, who has exhibited the discipline to not force the ball against zone coverage and the ability to take shots against man coverage when they are available. Behind Rogers and Abraham might be the future of Mississippi State in bluechip quarterback recruit Sawyer Robertson (6-4, 210) from… Lubbock, Texas, a place Mike Leach knows all too well.
Running Back
Last season, after Week One of the SEC season, I was asked who I thought would win the Heisman. I gave the politically correct answer of Trevor Lawrence, but then threw out another name – 2019 All-SEC running back Kylin Hill. Why? Because I knew there was a chance he could get over 100 carries and over 100 receptions in the Mike Leach offense. Of course, two weeks later, Kylin Hill had opted out of the season and begun to focus on his NFL career. But that sentiment proved to be right.
In to replace Kylin Hill was Jo’quavious Marks (5-10, 205) and Dillon Johnson (5-11,195). Between the two of them, they had 121 rushing attempts and 96 receptions. Tack that on top of the 15 rushing attempts and 23 receptions Hill already had, and I think you might have seen Hill compete for a Heisman Trophy or other postseason hardware. Nevertheless, Marks and Johnson return for what should be big 2021 campaigns. Both were named pre-season candidates for the Doak Walker Award. Both of them.
Marks, who is entering his sophomore season, was a big-time recruit out of Atlanta’s Carver High School. He’s got a good frame, good vision, excellent pass catching instincts, and decent enough speed to make plays in the open field. Johnson, another sophomore, is a big back from Greenville, Mississippi, and rushed for four touchdowns in 2020.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Yes, the quarterback is instrumental in running an Air Raid passing attack. But in many ways, the wide receivers determine how successful it can be. A great story I stumbled upon was Kliff Kingsbury talking about how Leach would start yelling during film sessions if he saw a receiver line up with the wrong foot forward. His offense is that detail-oriented. Paradoxically, it can also be as simple as running and catching the football. The Bulldogs lose 505 receiving yards by way of Osirus Mitchell’s departure, but they return with some talent, along with a few salty veterans. It all starts with Austin Williams.
Back in June, Chuck Oliver said on his daily radio show that sometimes just turning around, putting your hands up, and having the quarterback know you will catch the ball is all you need. Well, that is Austin Williams (6-3, 200). He’s a tall veteran from Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Having him underneath catching every ball that comes his way helps guys like Jaden Walley (6-0, 185) and Malik Heath (6-3, 200) make plays down the field.
Both Walley and Heath are capable of putting up good numbers. They are bonafide SEC wide receivers. Walley is on almost every preseason watch list (both nationally and regionally). Meanwhile, Heath needs to redeem himself; his decent 2020 season was completely overshadowed by the endless replays showing him kicking a Tulsa player in the bowl game brawl. As stated earlier, running backs Marks and Johnson will also play a big role in this passing attack, as will Lideatrick “Tulu” Griffin (5-10, 180), a dynamic scorer who will also return kicks. While not heavily featured, athletes like Griffin will make this Mississippi State team look like an SEC-caliber club. Also look out for Rufus Harvey (5-10, 170), Makai Polk (6-3, 200), and Jamire Calvin (5-10, 160) in this loaded receiver room.
Offensive Line
There are seniors and juniors littered throughout this offense line, but the anchor is sophomore Charles Cross(6-5, 310), a former five-star recruit who was courted by every SEC program. Of course, with Leach’s offense passing the ball more than any other team in the COUNTRY, this offensive line is asked to pass block more than other SEC units. That proved to be an issue last season.
One of the questions with Leach’s offense coming into the SEC was not if the passing concepts would work, but whether his quarterback could survive a full season of SEC defensive linemen pinning their ears back and pass rushing. After last season, the answer appeared to be “no.” The Bulldogs signed five offensive linemen in this last class. Reinforcements are on the way, especially in the form of two Mississippi JUCO signees – offensive tackle Nick Jones (6-3, 300) and offensive tackle Carson Williams (6-5, 300) – but whether they will be enough, and whether this offense can adapt to SEC defensive lines, remain big question marks.
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Defense
A Mike Leach-coached team plays poor defense, right? Not necessarily. It’s kind of hard to mess up a Mississippi State defense with the number of defensive prospects that come out of the state of Mississippi. And defensive coordinator Zach Arnett put together a strong season last year, finishing 5th in the SEC in total defense. And there is reason to think this defense could improve in 2021.
Departed Notable Starters
Erroll Thompson – LB – NFL
Marquiss Spencer – DL – NFL
Kobe Jones – DL – NFL
Defensive Line
If you read Front Porch Football’s first three previews, you probably are noticing a trend. (And shame on you if you haven’t.) We love line-of-scrimmage play. It’s a cliche, but it’s true – to win in the SEC, you have to win in the trenches. Mississippi State has a tradition, like many SEC programs, of continually reloading along the defensive line. The Bulldogs lost two key players in Marquiss Spencer and Kobe Jones, but they return some great players.
The biggest wildcard is defensive tackle Nathan Pickering (6-4, 300). A former five-star recruit, Pickering is entering his junior season with solid stats and good play, but nothing spectacular. When you’re following in the footsteps of Fletcher Cox, Jeffrey Simmons, Chris Jones, and a slew of other NFL defensive linemen, good play doesn’t cut it. This is a put up or shut up season for the Mississippi native. Also in the interior is Jaden Crumedy (6-5, 310), and on the outside, look for Jordan Davis (6-4, 265) to put up some solid pass rushing statistics in his senior season. SEC-caliber linemen Aaron Odom and transfer Randy Charlton (6-3, 265) also add depth and talent to this defensive line.
Linebacker
The bad news is Mississippi State lost its leading tackler from last season’s team. The good news is they return the team’s second-leading tackler in Aaron Brule (6-1, 230) and their sack leader in Tyrus Wheat (6-2, 265). Like the defensive line, this unit has some talented pieces, but its lack of proven depth could be an area for concern as the season goes on. One name to keep an eye on is JUCO transfer DeShawn Page (6-2, 225). He’s a big linebacker who can run, and he should be ready to contribute early in 2021. The future of the position, however, are true freshman Ty Cooper (6-4, 240) and John Lewis (6-3, 230). Both have great size and are homegrown products. Cooper profiles more as an edge rusher, while Lewis can play all three linebacker positions.
Secondary
This is one of the best defensive backfields in the SEC, and nobody is talking about it. It starts at cornerback with Emmanuel Forbes (6-0, 180) and Martin Emerson (6-2, 200). Both are capable of All-SEC seasons. Forbes is a ball hawk, tallying five interceptions during last season’s 10-game schedule, which was best in the SEC. Emerson is more of a “shutdown corner,” with strong hands that can break up passes and with an ability to bring offensive players down to the ground. He gave up only one touchdown the entire season.
Jalen Green (6-1. 200) can be a strong nickelback, which is a position every SEC team needs solidified, give the way teams play offense in 2021. Fred Peters (5-10, 205) was a recruit I really liked out of JUCO; he now enters his senior season at the safety position. The Bulldogs need some stronger play in the back end of the secondary – guys like Shawn Preston (6-0, 205) and Landon Guidry (6-0, 195) need to step up – but with Forbes and Emerson at cornerback, I see the defensive backfield as a strength for Mississippi State.
Special Teams
Veterans return in the kicking game in placekicker Brandon Ruiz (5-10, 180), who went 10-12 in field goals, and punter Tucker Day (6-0, 215), who has started multiple years for the Bulldogs. As previously mentioned, Tulu Griffin will be one of the more dynamic return specialists in the SEC. Look for him to flip field positions and maybe take a kick or two back for a score.
Impact Players
- Charles Cross – Tackle – As mentioned, this offensive line struggled last season and projects to possibly struggle again in 2021. Athlon Sports ranked this Bulldog offensive line 13th out of 14 SEC offensive lines. If this group (and offense) is to take a step forward, it will be because of Cross.
- Martin Emerson & Emmanuel Forbes – CB – You can’t list one without the other, but in today’s college football, you need great cornerback play, and Mississippi State is getting that with both of these guys.
- Jaden Walley – WR – Whoever is throwing the football, Walley is going to be the big-play threat. He can hurt opposing defenses by stretching the field vertically, or by racking up extra yards after the catch.
- Will Rogers/Jack Abraham – QB – The position battle rages on as we head toward camp. Rogers has the leg up after finishing last season in such a positive fashion, but the spring game performance by Abraham raised eyebrows. Both could be crucial in taking this Air Raid offense to the next level.
Schedule
Sept. 4 vs. Louisiana Tech
Sept. 11 vs. NC State
Sept. 18 at Memphis
Sept. 25 vs. LSU
Oct. 2 at Texas A&M
Oct. 16 vs. Alabama
Oct. 23 at Vanderbilt
Oct. 30 vs. Kentucky
Nov. 6 at Arkansas
Nov. 13 at Auburn
Nov. 20 vs. Tennessee State
Nov. 27 at Ole Miss
Conclusion
This is a tough schedule for Mike Leach in Year Two. Drawing NC State and a trip to Memphis as out-of-conference games, coupled with back-to-back trips to Arkansas and Auburn, make this a tough draw. Look out for the Alabama game. Mississippi State gets a bye the week before, and Mike Leach will have time to prepare for what will be a revenge game after getting blanked last season. Will they win? No. But it could be interesting. They have the talent and the schemes to win every game but the three-game stretch of LSU, A&M, and Bama. They also need to show that they are better than a 3 or 4 win team.
The game that needs to be circled is the Ole Miss game for multiple reasons. First, it’s the Egg Bowl. No need to say more. But on top of that, Ole Miss is perceived to have pulled ahead of Mississippi State, even if both programs are in their relative infancy of their new head coaches (Lane Kiffin is also in his second year at Ole Miss). Even beyond that, this game matters to Mike Leach.
As impressive a job as he did at Washington State, his one big knock was his inability to win the annual Apple Cup rivalry game against Washington. And that was at Washington State. This is the SEC and this is the Egg Bowl. The level of scrutiny for losing to your rival in this conference and in this game is exponentially higher. It won’t be a snippy reporter or two. It won’t be a couple Monday morning quarterbacks. It’s the entire school and the entire fanbase. It’s our Quote of the Day for a reason – the only color that matters at Mississippi State is maroon. And those colors run deep in the Egg Bowl. Leach can’t start off 0-2 against Ole Miss.
