Front Porch FootballFlorida 2021 Season Preview
by Chris Paschal
The Florida Gators enter the 2021 Season with their backs against the wall. Yes, you heard that correctly. The Gators, who finished last season with a win over Georgia, an SEC East Title, and a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback, enter the 2021 Season with not only a lot left to prove, but some serious doubters.
How can that be? Mostly because of the way the Gators finished last season. In Dan Mullen’s third season in Gainesville, and with his best offense thus far, the Gators lost in epic fashion to LSU, couldn’t pull off the upset to win the SEC against Alabama, and got blown out by Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl to finish the season 8-4. A lot of pieces return this season, but there is mounting pressure in one of the true pressure cookers of the SEC to prove that 2020 wasn’t the best this Gator program can achieve under Mullen.
Offense
When you think about a Dan Mullen offense, what comes to mind? For years, it was a powerful offensive line that could impose its will on just about anyone, a big dual-threat quarterback, and playmakers in the slot and the backfield. That’s not what we saw from the Gators in 2020. Last year, in one of the best passing seasons a Gator quarterback has ever had, Florida led the nation in passing offense but finished 96th in rushing. Part of that was due to Kyle Trask maturing into an elite quarterback, and part was due to Kyle Pitts’ eye-popping performance at tight end. But a major reason for Florida’s lack of balance on offense was its pedestrian offensive line. If the Gators want to rise above 2020, their massive offensive linemen will need to pair their imposing size with a corresponding level of toughness.
Departed Key Starters
Kyle Trask – QB – NFL
Kyle Pitts – TE – NFL
Kadarius Toney – WR – NFL
Trevon Grimes – WR – Graduation
Quarterback
This is probably the quarterback position that intrigues me the most heading into 2021, especially with the unfortunate news that LSU’s Myles Brennan was lost to the season due to injury. But there are so many question marks and headlines for this position group. First, let’s take this back to 2017. Emory Jones is still in high school and putting up video game statistics. A highly ranked prospect out of Georgia, he has offers to every school in the SEC and throughout the country. He takes visits to Alabama and Florida State, he considers offers from Tennessee and Clemson but ultimately decides to play for the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Meanwhile, during the same 2017 season, Florida is an absolute dumpster fire. The Gators have won just four games and fired Jim McElwain mid-season. But there is hope. The savior of the program, Dan Mullen, is hired in late November of 2017. He gets Jones to visit the Gators in mid-December. And then pulls off the ultimate recruiting victory when he flips Jones from Ohio State to Florida just five days after he finished his visit to Gainesville. The fanbase is energized and the media is excited. Emory Jones (6-2, 210) is the prototypical Dan Mullen quarterback. He is mobile, he has a strong arm, and he is not afraid to pick up tough yards in the run game. In December of 2017, Gator Nation thought they had the quarterback of the future.
Three and a half years later and Jones has still not started a complete game.
He enters the fall with as many questions as answers. Jones has sat behind Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask for the past few years and has only been used in a Wildcat format. If he was really as good as Dan Mullen and Florida fans are making him out to be, then why has he played such a limited role in this Gator offense until now? How will he adjust from being the change-of-pace option to being the face of one of the SEC’s elite football programs? Look for Dan Mullen to morph his offense back into something resembling his Utah, Tebow/Dak Prescott-esque versions, rather than the offense we saw in 2020.
In Jones’s defense, his physical traits are elite. Word out of Gainesville even when he was a freshman was that he had one of the strongest arms on the team. Make no mistake, I think this is Jones’s team, and Mullen will utilize the dual-threat capabilities in true Mullen fashion, but behind Jones is Gainesville native Anthony Richardson (6-4, 235). He’s big and athletic, and while I don’t expect him to challenge Jones for the starting job in 2021, Mullen definitely has an ace up his sleeve in case Jones doesn’t pan out or get more accurate with the football.
Running Back
By having a quarterback who can play a major role in the rushing attack this season, look for Florida’s offensive backfield to get a much-needed shot in the arm when it comes to zone reads and inside power plays. As elite of a passer Trask was, in many ways he was a statue in the pocket and good for not much more than a QB sneak or two in the run game.
But this Gator rushing attack will not only get a shot in the arm via the quarterback position. Instead, it will get an even bigger shot in the arm in the form of Clemson transfer and former five-star recruit Demarkcus Bowman (5-10, 190). (As a Carolina fan, I was happy to hear he was leaving Clemson, only to throw my phone across the room when I read he was transferring to Florida.) Bowman, from the talent-rich town of Lakeland, Florida – Lakeland High won the 7A State Championship Bowman’s senior season – has SEC speed and turned heads during spring practice before being sidelined after a knee injury.
When asked about Bowman’s progress in learning the offense, Dan Mullen expressed concern about Bowman’s lack of reps in the spring, but I don’t buy his level of concern one bit. It was all a smoke screen. This is an elite tailback that will play in week one and will get the lion’s share of carries this season.
Dameon Pierce (5-10, 210) and Malik Davis (5-10, 200) both return for their senior seasons after finishing last year with barely 800 yards rushing between them. As discussed previously, though, much of the (dis)credit for their 2020 performance goes to the offensive line. If offensive line play improves, expect Pierce and Davis’ yards per carry to also improve when they give Bowman a breather.
Look for Bowman, Davis, Pearce, and quarterback Emory Jones to make this one of the most potent rushing attacks in the SEC – if the offensive line can live up to its potential.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Gone are Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, and Trevon Grimes. But this is Florida, and the Gators are never short on speedy and talented players on the perimeter. This is junior Jacob Copeland’s (6-0, 205) year to establish himself as the next great Florida receiver. The Pensacola native had solid freshman and sophomore campaigns in 2019 and 2020, hauling in a total of five touchdowns and over 700 yards. But his role in the offense is about to get a lot bigger. To take the next step forward, he is going to have to play more consistently and cut out the unnecessary drops that have hampered him in the past.
Next to Copeland is Penn State transfer Justin Shorter (6-5, 230). A massive target, Shorter finished last season with three touchdown receptions. The name that intrigues me the most, however, is Miami native Xzavier Henderson (6-3, 195), a highly recruited prospect who turned down Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia to come to Gainesville. Look for him to have a coming out party in his sophomore season.
Of course, it’s going to be almost impossible for Florida to replace the value Kyle Pitts offered the Gators at tight end. But look for 6-3, 240-pound Keon Zipperer (another Lakeland, Florida, product) to have a solid season. The Gators will also utilize their running backs in the passing attack – last season, Malik Davis finished with over 375 receiving yards.
Offensive Line
The Gators do not have a mid-2010s Florida State situation, when the Seminoles simply neglected the offensive line in recruiting for years. Florida’s offensive linemen are talented, but that talent has not translated into production for the past few seasons.
If I were to pick one lineman who could be an anchor for this unit moving forward, it would be sophomore guard Joshua Braun (6-6, 350). In high school, he had unbelievable size, great feet, and a motor that couldn’t be taught. Braun was the type of high school prospect coaches fawned over, and the Gators won a big recruiting battle against Georgia and South Carolina, two programs he visited before landing with the Gators. He now enters his second season in Gainesville, and if he can hold down one guard position, the Gators might have a solid starting five. Opposite Braun is another mammoth of a human being in Ethan White (6-5, 345).
Something I have always believed is that the best interior offensive linemen aren’t the size of tackles. (There are of course examples of big guards being elite run blockers – one just enshrined into the Hall of Fame in Alan Faneca.) I don’t like tall guards because so much of being a good guard is being a mean son-of-a-gun in run blocking schemes. And a lot of what dictates run blocking is low pad level.
Now some people read “low pad level” and they think I mean literally having your pads lower than the defensive linemen. That can be true, but isn’t necessarily true. Low pad level is really about having your hips lower than the defensive lineman. Having athletic, powerful, and flexible hips are important. So is having a low center of gravity and a solid base. If you are a 6-1 or 6-2 guard and you are blocking a 6-4 defensive tackle, you have a God-given advantage when it comes to run blocking because you can naturally get your hips under the defensive tackle’s hips. That defensive tackle has to work that much hard to get his pads and hips below that shorter guard. So much of interior line play (on both sides of the line of scrimmage) is about “low hips wins.”
Both of Florida’s guards are as big if not bigger than both starting tackles. Florida didn’t have a single tailback rush for over 100 yards in a game last season. These guards, while strong and massive, need to get meaner and need to win their one-on-one blocking assignments with lower hips in 2021. It’s possible to be a centered, explosive guard even with the size White and Braun have, but regardless of whether they are 6-10 or 5-1, they both need to move defensive linemen off the ball, and that starts with low pads and explosive hips.
Returning starters at both tackle positions in Richard Gouraige (one of the first big recruiting wins Mullen had at Florida) and Jean Delance (one of four Texas natives on this roster), could help with the transition at quarterback. Like the Gators, so many SEC defensive lines have elite pass rushers on the edge. Having two tackles returning will help in not only the pass protection of Jones, but will help the new starting quarterback identify blitzes. Another added bonus is senior leadership at center with Stewart Reese. Having returning starters at tackle and center will help this offensive line communicate amongst each other and with Jones. Reese also helps not only in the run game, but in pass protection, as well. While the edge rushers still strike fear in opposing quarterbacks, the interior pass rush can quickly break down a pocket. Reese adds stability in the interior pass protection.
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Defense
Todd Grantham returns for his fourth season as defensive coordinator at Florida. The Bud Foster disciple struggled mightily last year. Florida finished 74th in scoring defense, 71st in rushing defense, 100th in passing defense, and 83rd in total defense. Defensive backs coach Torian Gray was let go by the end of the season as the scapegoat for all of Florida’s defensive shortcomings. Nobody in Gainesville bought it. This is Grantham’s defense, and 2021 will be his most important season yet.
Departed Notable Starters
Tedarrell Slaton – DT – NFL
Shawn Davis – DB – NFL
Marco Wilson – DB – NFL
Donovan Stiner – DB – NFL
Brad Stewart – DB – Canadian Football League
Defensive Line
It starts on the edge for the Gators. Senior Zachary Carter (6-4, 275), senior Jeremiah Moon (6-5, 245), junior (and 2019 Georgia transfer) Brenton Cox (6-4, 250), and junior Khris Bogle (6-4, 235) are all elite pass rushers. Carter and Moon will be NFL draft picks, and Bogle is on the verge of bursting onto the scene in the SEC.
Cox who has a chance to be an All-American. After some rumors swirled over the summer about Cox’s health (or lack thereof), video of Cox running drills was shared on Twitter this past weekend. Let’s just say those rumors died quickly. He looked athletic, explosive, and determined. The Dawg-turned-Gator (and former 5-star recruit) has the chance to become a first-round draft pick if he can shore up his run defense. Because meanwhile, nobody in the conference can get in the backfield as well as Cox. David Reese, Andrew Chatfield, Antwaun Powell, and Lloyd Summerall are strong reserves on the outside.
Defensive Tackle
The interior is much more of a question mark, as it has been for a few years now. That said, if there was ever a player who could solidify his role as a starter at defensive tackle, it would be Gervon Dexter (6-6, 310). He had moments of brilliance last season, including an interception against Ole Miss, but at other times he very much looked like a freshman. The closer a player is to the ball at the snap, the more experience helps, which is why it’s tough to play at an elite level when you are a freshman defensive tackle. But after a year of experience and a full spring, Dexter could firmly establish himself as a true presence on the inside for the Gators.
Speaking of experience, the Gators got much needed help at defensive tackle in upperclassman Antonio Shelton, a transfer from Penn State, and Daquan Newkirk, a transfer from Auburn. Neither are expected to be exceptional additions, but both definitely could be adequate. If Shelton and Newkirk play solid SEC-level football, which is definitely on the table, and Dexter explodes onto the scene, the interior of this Gator defensive line could vastly improve. But after a couple of years of poor play at defensive tackle and nose tackle, I need to see it before I believe it. Name to keep an eye on in the future is Tyreak Sapp (6-3, 260) out of Fort Lauderdale.
Linebacker
The Gators return their two leading tacklers from a year ago in 6-1, 225-pound Ventrell Miller (if you’re playing along at home, that’s another Lakeland, Florida, native) and Mohamoud Diabate (6-3, 225). When you think about long, rangy, fast SEC linebackers, Diabate is Exhibit A. Ty’Ron Hopper out of the Atlanta area is also going to make some noise in his sophomore season. Senior Amari Burney (6-2, 240) adds experience and depth at the position, while JUCO Transfer Diwun Black (6-4, 225) could make an instant impact. Black was the top ranked JUCO prospect in the country last year.
Florida’s poor run defense can be attributed to a lot of things, and offensive lines dominating Florida’s defensive line of course didn’t help, but the Gators need to have more disciplined linebacker play. Grantham’s defense is known for aggression. Heck, when you lead the country most years in sacks and forced turnovers, aggression is expected. But creating seams in run defense due to over-aggression, and linebackers over pursuing outside zone plays, are little fixes that could address many of the defensive woes this group has faced.
Secondary
The Gators are one of the few programs with a legitimate claim at being DBU (Defensive Back University). After what was a subpar 2020 season, Florida looks to rebound in 2021. It starts with cornerback Kaiir Elam (6-2, 195), who finished last season as All-SEC. Elam is a long, physical cornerback who also has a knack for getting the ball, finishing with two interceptions last season.
Opposite Elam will be Jaydon Hill (6-0, 190) and Jason Marshall (6-0, 190). Hill, a junior from Alabama, played a lot of snaps last season, while true freshman Marshall was rated one of the best high school defensive backs in the entire country last season.
Safety
Trey Dean (6-3, 200) has played all over the defensive backfield, but looks to have found his home at safety. The remainder of the safety play may be a revolving door of misfits. Look for Texas A&M transfer Elijah Blades who played cornerback in College Station to find his way onto the field (maybe at safety) at some point this season. By season’s end, look for former blue chip recruit Corey Collier to solidify himself as one of the safeties. The true freshman Miami native has the size (6-1, 175) needed to play a significant role in 2021, but look for him to do significant damage in years to come.
At nickleback, or STAR, Florida will turn to Kamar Wilcoxson (6-1, 200), a Georgia product who committed to Florida, decommitted, committed to Tennessee, decommitted, then signed with the Gators. Sophomore Te’Vez Johnson (5-11, 190) is a Swiss army knife of the defensive backfield but will probably play his most of his snaps at nickelback.
Special Teams
Gone is kicker Evan McPherson, who finished last season 17-22 for field goals. The good news is Florida has a replacement in former Mississippi State kicker Jace Christmann, who had a big career in Starkville. Florida will look to Australian Jeremy Crawshaw to handle punting duties. The biggest question mark for special teams: who will replace Kadarius Toney as returner?
Impact Players
1. Gervon Dexter – DT – The Gators have to get better against the run. That starts and ends with the defensive tackles. If Dexter can have a big sophomore season, that’s a good first step.
2. Brenton Cox – Edge – Florida has a slew of edge rushers who can get after the quarterback, but Cox is the best.
3. Demarkcus Bowman – RB – If you’re going to win in the SEC, you have to run the football. Even with last season’s top ranked passing offense, the Gators couldn’t run the ball in key situations. If this offensive line can take a step forward, the rushing attack will be much more Dan Mullen-like, and Bowman could have a special season.
4. Emory Jones – QB – What happens if this kid becomes the second coming of Dak Prescott? Prescott took Mississippi State to the #1 ranking in the 2014 season. Could you imagine if he had played for a team with these offensive weapons? (That 2014 Mississippi State offense had some studs, but not as many as Florida.) If Emory Jones has a big season running the football, and just a solid season throwing the football, the Gators will not only be back in Atlanta, but they may find a way into the College Football Playoff.
Schedule
Sept. 4 — vs. Florida Atlantic
Sept. 11 — at South Florida
Sept. 18 — vs. Alabama
Sept. 25 — vs. Tennessee
Oct. 2 — at Kentucky
Oct. 9 — vs. Vanderbilt
Oct. 16 — at LSU
Oct. 23 — BYE
Oct. 30 — vs. Georgia (Jacksonville, FL)
Nov. 6 — at South Carolina
Nov. 13 — vs. Samford
Nov. 20 — at Missouri
Nov. 27 — Florida State
Conclusion
Look back to what I just wrote about Emory Jones in the Impact Players section. Let me throw this out there. Imagine a season where Emory Jones is the real deal. He throws for 2,700 yards and rushes for 800 yards. Demarkcus Bowman, Malik Davis, and this offensive line make Florida one of the elite rushing attacks in the SEC. Copeland and Henderson and Shorter terrorize opposing defenses. Dexter is the truth at defensive tackle, the Gators sack the quarterback like a Todd Grantham defense is known for, and the defensive backs bounce back and play like DBU. If those things happen — and all those things are within the realm of possibility — the Gators can beat every team on that schedule. Yes, including Alabama.
Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. I think defenses will take advantage of a weakened passing attack with the departures of Trask, Pitts, Toney, and Grimes, and make it tough for this offense to run the football. Even if the offensive line improves, it’s tough to run the ball when a defense doesn’t fear your passing attack. I also still have major concerns about the interior of the defensive line. Dexter could step up and have a big season, but there needs to be more than one stalwart on an SEC defensive line.
The Gators couldn’t get it done last season with a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback, and I don’t think they can get it done this season with a first-time starter at quarterback. Alabama and Georgia will be losses, and I could see the Gators dropping two more to a group consisting of Kentucky (a team I am high on), LSU, South Carolina (a game that is on the road and immediately after the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party), Missouri (a tough game for Florida for years now and this year on the road), and the rivalry game against Florida State.
I have Florida going 8-4, and while I think it’s more likely they go 9-3 than 7-5, I wouldn’t rule out a collapse. If Florida heads into the South Carolina game 5-3, the Mullen’s seat might quickly become uncomfortably hot. I have been pretty spot-on about Florida since they hired Mullen. I don’t have a good feeling about this season.
