2021 Expectations for the SEC

All teams are not created equal. Vanderbilt does not have the same standards of success as Alabama (if they do, the Commodores are lying to themselves). With several coaches going into their second years at the helm, and even more entering their inaugural campaigns, each program has different expectations for 2021. Below, we give what we want to see from each school in the SEC (plus Clemson and UNC) in order for them to deem this year a success.

At the end of each month, we will present a “Report Card” grading each team on their performance based on these expectations. For example, Arkansas will run through the gauntlet traveling to Georgia as their cross-division matchup on top of their usual opponents in the West (at LSU and Alabama on back-to-back weekends), and if that weren’t  enough, they face Texas in week 2. For a team that went from zero conference wins in 2019 to three in 2020, it would be unfair to grade them based off of their record. Instead, we will base each team’s  grades on our expectations. And, yes, we’ll show our work. 

Alabama

Brendan Paschal: SEC Championship or Bust. Most Alabama fans (and of course, Nick Saban) are thinking along the lines of “National Championship or Bust,” but winning back-to-back championships is highly difficult, even for Nick Saban. Because they lost so much of their offensive production from last year, and over half of their starting offensive line, it will be difficult to replicate their 2020 success. That said, we will grade Alabama rigorously because we expect more out of them than any other program. If this team doesn’t dominate in every aspect of the game, their grades will reflect it. 

Arkansas

Max McDougald: The Razorbacks are coming off a 2020 season where they only won three games in an all-SEC schedule (although, as noted above, that was three more conference games than they won in 2019). The Razorbacks believe they can improve upon that this year, in the second season under Head Coach Sam Pittman. There will be a new starter at QB for the Razorbacks, but after that, they return almost every starter on both sides of the ball. The defense should be much-improved under defensive coordinator Barry Odom, with all-SEC linebackers Grant Morgan and Bumper Pool in the middle.

The schedule in 2021 is more favorable, but don’t expect Arkansas to be a contender in the hyper-competitive SEC West. Even though the overall record at the end of the year may not be all that impressive, the team’s visible improvements in quality of play should be evident game-to-game and give Razorback fans hope for the future. The Razorbacks need to be able to sustain drives on offense and stiffen their resistance at the point of attack on defense. Seeing this each week will be an improvement on last season and help them receive a good grade on the FPF Report Card.

Auburn

John Lamm:  Auburn enters the first season with Bryan Harsin as head coach. This team finished last year with a very disappointing 6-5 record that saw the end of the Gus Malzahn era. The key for the Tigers  in 2021 will be quarterback play. If Bo Nix is able to play up to the potential expected from him coming out of high school, this will be a solid football team. On the flip side, though, they have one of the toughest schedules in the conference. But if they are able to win all of the games on their schedule that they are favored in, and can find an upset or two against the likes of Penn State or Texas A&M, this could be an eight- or nine-win football team. Personally, I expect this team to be up-and-down this season, and with the team not fully vaccinated as of now, Covid will play a role in that. Expect somewhere between five and seven wins.

Florida

Chris Paschal: For over two decades, the Florida Gators set the standard for the SEC. That changed with the rise of Nick Saban and Alabama. Unfortunately for Gator fans, the Gators didn’t just slip to #2 Instead, they lost their supremacy in the SEC East to Georgia and failed to win a single SEC title in more than a decade – Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU have all won SEC titles since the Gators last won one. Last year was Florida’s best offense in over a decade, but the Gators still fell short of their championship goals. This year is a big one for Dan Mullen and company. Florida’s offense will be led by Emory Jones at quarterback, a dynamic, dual-threat weapon who finally has been given the reins of this offense.  Look for Florida to have a different, more traditional Dan Mullen approach in terms of running the football, especially if the offensive line can improve. On defense, the Gators have some great pass rushers and a lot of talent in the defensive backfield. The real question: can they improve in run defense? If so, the Gators could compete for a second consecutive SEC East title. Florida should have a talented enough team to win any game on their schedule. Yes, including the Alabama game. But “could” doesn’t necessarily equal  “will.” With the Crimson Tide coming to Gainesville on week 3, back-to-back games versus LSU and Georgia, and road trips to Kentucky, Missouri, and South Carolina, Florida’s schedule is full of potential land mines for an already agitated fanbase. For the Gators to have a successful season, they need to get to ten wins. Realistic fans would shoot for eight wins and be happy if/when they got a ninth, or a tenth, or an eleventh. But this is Florida – the Gators need ten wins or more for a successful report card this season. 

Georgia

John: Last season, Georgia missed the SEC championship game for the first time since 2016, and it will feel like a failed season to many fans if they do not win the SEC East this season. For his first time as a Bulldog, JT Daniels will have a full season as starting quarterback. Coming off an ACL injury, Daniels looked impressive while compiling a 4-0 record last season; expect his play to be even better in 2021. Look for Georgia to go undefeated in SEC play this season and face Alabama for the SEC title. This may be the best team Kirby Smart has ever coached at Georgia, and this team definitely has a chance to make the College Football Playoff and win a national championship.

Kentucky

Max: Expectations in Lexington are high for this Kentucky ball club, but here at FPF we are realistic about what Kentucky can be. Will Levis will be the starting QB and he will try to provide the consistency the Wildcats have been lacking at this position. Kentucky has  weapons at the skill positions and will play its typical hard-nosed defense, even with some losses of talent from last season.This Wildcat team might be able to improve on last season’s four conference wins, but do not expect them to compete for the SEC East title.  Combined with a relatively easy non-conference schedule, our expectations for Kentucky this year are (cautiously) optimistic.

LSU

Brendan: Last year’s grace period is over. There is no more room for excuses or finger-pointing. Ed Orgeron said he has made the correct changes to his coaching staff, and he has elite talent at every position, many of them returning starters. LSU’s defense needs to return to its traditionally instinctive brand of football, flying to the ball, holding meetings in the backfield, and punishing opposing offenses. The Tigers’ offense also needs to be consistent, a quality that was sorely lacking in 2019. LSU has a tough road ahead in the SEC West, and I don’t anticipate them making it to Atlanta in December. But I do expect them to win a few games they shouldn’t and to lose a game or two they should win. That should be enough for a passing grade, as long as we don’t witness a repeat of Troy in 2017. 

Mississippi State

Chris: Get to a Bowl Game. That’s what the Fightin’ Mike Leaches need to do for a successful season. A lot of talent returns from an inconsistent team last season, but Mike Leach historically takes a few seasons to get his offense rolling (see: Texas Tech and Washington State). With a returning starter at quarterback in Will Rogers, talent at wide receiver, and the Bulldogs’ two leading rushers returning, the Mike Leach Experiment might heat up sooner and quicker than most experts predicted. As is tradition, the Bulldogs have a solid defense returning, especially on the defensive line and at cornerback. That alone will win you some games in the SEC, but it doesn’t change the fact that Mississippi State is still in the SEC West. Success has to be relative to where the Bulldogs are in their rebuild. If Mississippi State can get to six wins, it is because the offensive line play improved in 2021. Charles Cross is one of the better offensive linemen in the SEC. Outside of him, others need to step up. If the offensive line can simply play adequately, the Bulldogs should be ready to take the next step this season. Additionally, as seen in my preseason preview, I think this team has some haymakers saved up for another big upset (like LSU in 2020). If the Bulldogs get to seven wins, like I think they will, look for expectations to be sky-high heading into 2022. 

Missouri 

John:  Missouri looks to improve upon their 5-5 season in Eli Drinkwitz’s second season. The goal for this Missouri team needs to be to find a way to be the #3 team in the SEC East behind Florida and Georgia this season. Sophomore quarterback Connor Bazelak has looked great in practice, and the coaches believe he will make major strides in year 2. The must-win games for this Missouri team to take it to the next level in 2021 are Boston College, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky. If Missouri wins all of those games, this will most likely be a 9-win team. Personally, I believe this will be an exciting offensive team that will win 7-8 games.

Ole Miss

Brendan: We should see a high-powered offense and improved defense. Although Ole Miss should climb their way out from the bottom of the SEC statistically, don’t expect  their defenders on any All-American rosters. And that’s okay. The Rebs don’t need the Landshark defense reincarnated, but it would help if their defense  wasn’t sometimes mistaken for a Big 12 team. If the Ole Miss defense can limit explosive plays, force more turnovers, and cut down their opponents’ total yards (an average of 519 yards per game in 2020), their offense should be able to provide the points to win games, as long as Matt Corral plays with consistency and composure in the pocket. 

South Carolina

Max: The Gamecocks have many unknowns entering the 2021 season. There will be a lot of new faces scattered across the field, most notably at secondary and linebacker. For the Gamecocks, success probably won’t be having one of those dominant, 11-win seasons of the Spurrier era, but seeing more in-game improvements over the lackluster performances of the tail end of the Muschamp era.  Staying healthy will also be huge for this team, as there is a lack of depth at some positions. As hard as it will be for Gamecock fans, the record might not tell as much as improvement in the quality of play. We have predicted the Gamecocks to finish 6-6, but for the Gamecocks to receive a quality grade, the progress needs to be obvious. During the Muschamp Era, the Gamecocks would come out flat in big games and didn’t have many impressive, dominant wins. This year, the Gamecocks need to play tougher against the big opponents, even in a loss, and put on a show against teams they are favored to beat.

Tennessee 

Chris: My friend Matt Dixon from the Tony Basilio Show in Knoxville said it best when he said, “we just can’t be bad AND boring.” Success in Knoxville is scoring points,even in a shootout loss. For a model from another program, look back to 2012. Ole Miss was under first-year head coach Hugh Freeze, and in week three, they hosted a then-powerful Texas program. Nobody expected Ole Miss to win. Heck, Hugh Freeze literally said in his pregame, on-field interview that he didn’t think the Rebels could win. But guess what? Ole Miss fans stayed the whole game and loved what they were watching, because even in a blowout loss, the Rebels scored more than 30 points on a nationally ranked Longhorn football team. That will be Tennessee fans this year. Yes, of course they want to get to a bowl game (assuming they aren’t banned from a bowl due to sanctions). But imagine the energy in Knoxville if Tennessee went into Tuscaloosa and lost to Alabama 56-35. Did they just lose by three touchdowns? You bet. But did they at least make things interesting and put up a lot of points? Yes. And that’s what Vol fans need to see in 2021. Nobody is expecting a team as hard-hit by the transfer portal as Tennessee to compete at a high level. At every position group, they are an injury or two away from disaster. But if they can put some points on the scoreboard, even in losses, Tennessee fans will deem this season a success. 

Texas A&M 

Chris: This is a tough one. Because on the one hand, a season with double-digit wins in the SEC West has to be considered a success. Winning double-digit games means you beat some combination of Colorado, the Mississippi schools, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Missouri, and Arkansas. That’s impressive. On the other hand, the last step in this epic rebuild by Jimbo Fisher is beating Alabama. For some fans, even if the Aggies finished 11-1, losing to Alabama yet again would sour the whole season. With Haynes King in place as starting quarterback, and exceptional players on the lines of scrimmage (DL DeMarvin Leal and OL Kenyon Green are both potential first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft), look for the Aggies to be competitive in every game they are in – something that was missing before 2020. Look out for running back Isaiah Spiller, who returns for what could be an All-American performance. October 9th at Kyle Field, when the 12th Man welcomes the Crimson Tide, will determine much of the Aggie Report Card. 

Vanderbilt

Max: All off-season, you heard how Vanderbilt was going to be an offense-driven club. You may ask – even with a defensive-minded head coach like Clark Lea? Well, the pieces are there for the Commodore offense to headline the team, but reports out of camp are that the defense has looked pretty good. If the defense can punch above its weight, this Vanderbilt team could be a tougher out than some expect. The Commodores aren’t projected to win a bunch of games, or really even compete for that matter, so playing teams closer than expected would be a positive for this team. Why would that signal progress? Coming off a year when you didn’t win a game, it would take a lot to jump straight to bowl-eligibility, even with the blessed relief of some non-conference opponents on your schedule (hello, Connecticut!). Commodore fans need to focus more on “the process” and to look for the small signs of progress that will lead to long-term success. And although the ultimate determinant of Lea’s success at Vanderbilt will probably be his ability to attract better talent to Nashville, our report card will focus on the Commodores’ actions on the field, not on the recruiting trail. 

Clemson 

Brendan: Last year, Clemson’s offense carried their lackluster (at least by Clemson standards) defense at times, but this season the roles should be reversed, especially with the loss of most of their offensive production to the NFL and the return of most of their starters on defense. This defense will need to force turnovers, lead the ACC in sacks, and quickly get off the field for a successful regular season. I expect the Tiger offense to play it safe early, while sophomore quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei gains the trust of coaches. But as the season progresses, look for him to play with more confidence and take shots down the field. Facing Georgia week 1 in Bank of America Stadium will be a shock to the system, especially with the Dawgs’ Jordan Davis lining up directly over whoever Dabo Swinney finally decides to start at center. But no matter what the outcome in Charlotte is, look for Clemson to go scorched earth in the regular season. Clemson is held to the higher standard of National Championship or Bust, but this year will be a success if they find themselves in the College Football Playoff. 

North Carolina

John: Under Mack Brown, North Carolina has become the team to beat in the ACC Coastal. Please note that this is something that would have seemed absolutely insane two or three years ago. Sam Howell appears to be the best player in the ACC going into the season, and with 10 starters returning on defense and 8 returning on offense, this group will be experienced. Anything less than a trip to the ACC Championship will feel like a disappointment, but Miami will give this team a run for its money getting to that game. The Heels open up at an always-tough Virginia Tech next Friday. If the Tar Heels can win that game, it will be very possible this team will be undefeated when they host Miami on October 16th. If they are then able to prevail against the Hurricanes, the Tar Heels will have a chance to run the table and finish 12-0. In reality, I expect them to drop a game or two this season, but believe this will be a 10-win team that will face Clemson in the ACC Championship.