Why Alabama Has to Lose

by Chris Paschal

You heard that right. Bama has to lose. But not for the usual reasons. The usual reasons – pleas for parity, “making college football better,” and SEC bias – have some merit, but that’s not what I’m talking about. Instead, I think Bama has to lose if the SEC has any shot of getting two teams into the College Football Playoff. That was the biggest development that came out of Baton Rouge last weekend.

The Georgia-LSU game that took place on October 13, 2018, might have been the most consequential and playoff determinative game that the SEC, heck, the nation has witnessed since the inception of the playoff. Think about it, with Georgia’s loss and LSU’s win now the SEC has undefeated Alabama and one-loss LSU in the West, and three teams (Florida, Georgia, Kentucky) with one loss in the East. Let’s break down what that means for the conference.

The Tigers Are Legit. Image from USA Today.

Let’s assume the Eastern Division Champion finishes the rest of the regular season unbeaten and makes it to Atlanta with one loss. Then, let’s also assume that Alabama beats LSU for the eighth straight time later in the season and heads to Atlanta not only as Western Division Champion, but as an unbeaten team, as well. Let’s further assume that an undefeated Alabama beats the one-loss, SEC East Champion. That would mean that the East Champion finishes with two losses and LSU finishes with at least two losses. A two-loss SEC team will not make it to the playoff, especially with the emergence of Notre Dame and the distinct possibility that Clemson finishes their season undefeated.

Benny Snell has the Cats Humming. Image from Hero Sports.

So we now know what can’t happen. Alabama cannot finish unbeaten. Alabama has to lose.

For the SEC to get two playoff bids, one of two scenarios must play out.

The Two Possible Scenarios

The first path is that LSU beats Alabama. LSU then does not drop another game and heads to the SEC Title Game with only the loss to Florida. Alabama doesn’t drop another game besides the loss to LSU. LSU then wins the SEC Title and makes the College Football Playoff, and Alabama makes it as the fourth seed like it did last year.

The second path is that Alabama beats LSU and finishes the regular season unbeaten. The East produces a champion that only has one loss. The Eastern Division champion then beats Alabama and makes the College Football Playoff, and Alabama is, you guessed it, tabbed the fourth best team in the country and makes the playoff.

Dawgs Are Still Playoff Contenders. Image from Times Union.

Those are the only two possibilities. And before some of y’all jump all over me, no, I have no forgotten that there is the possibility that Florida beats Georgia and finishes 11-1 and that Kentucky also beats Georgia and finishes 11-1, and because Kentucky holds the tie-breaker over Florida, the Wildcats make it to Atlanta over the Gators. First of all, that isn’t happening. Second, even if it did happen, and even if Kentucky then went on to win the SEC, and let’s say that Alabama and LSU collapsed and both had multiple losses, the committee would still not put the Gators and the Wildcats both in the playoff because the outcry from the rest of the nation that two SEC East teams made the playoff would be so vicious and so horrendous, nobody could stomach it.

Feleipe Franks looks like a brand new QB after spending an offseason under Dan Mullen. Image from Gator Country.

So there it is. There are only two possible paths to another half-SEC-filled College Football Playoff. That being said, I think this debate is an interesting one, but not a practical one.

Alabama or Notre Dame

I do not see Alabama dropping a single regular season game, therefore, eliminating LSU, and I do not see them losing to the Eastern Division Champ, therefore eliminating Florida, Georgia, or Kentucky. Further, I don’t see Alabama losing in the playoff. The Tide is my National Championship pick, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. My other three playoff participants are an undefeated-Clemson (easiest schedule amongst the contenders). Then an undefeated-Notre Dame (the rest of their schedule is very manageable), and the winner of the Big Ten East (Michigan or Ohio State), assuming that neither the Wolverines or Buckeyes finish the season with no more than a single loss.

Christian Wilkins (43) & Dexter Lawrence (90) are currently some of the most dynamic DT’s in college football. Image from Post & Courier.

That leads to the final question; should a one-loss, non-conference champion, Alabama team make the playoff over an undefeated Notre Dame? My answer – they should, but they won’t. Alabama is the most talented offense, if not team, in the entire country. But the only reason they made it last season with a loss and absent a conference championship is because the PAC-12 had no legitimate contender and the Big Ten Champion had two losses including one by 31 points to Iowa. That situation is vastly different from an undefeated Notre Dame team. Yes, Alabama fans will argue they had a tougher schedule than Notre Dame. Yet, you could also argue that Notre Dame’s schedule is strong enough to give them the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like Notre Dame played UCF’s schedule. They defeated the now sixth-ranked Michigan Wolverines, they demolished Stanford and Virginia Tech, and would finish the season with wins over Florida State (still talented), bowl-bound Northwestern and Syracuse, and Southern Cal.

Notre Dame is Playing Like a Champion.

There are a lot of moving parts in this post. Plus, there is still a lot of football left to be played. Furthermore, is almost impossible to get into the minds of the committee members, but this is how I see it shaking out. Now, watch Notre Dame lose to Navy and the SEC Champion have three losses.