Tua Update: Still Overrated

by Harris Oates

Naturally, living in the state of Alabama, I had to offer up my updated opinion on the Tagovailoa saga. What I claimed in November is coming to life. His weaknesses have finally been exposed to the public, not just to the ones looking for a flaw in Bama’s impressive offense. It seemed like he was the dominant one who deserved all the awards and credit, but some still weren’t 100% sold by all the headlines. Time to face the music Alabama fans, Tua isn’t who you’ve been claiming him to be. He is a really good quarterback, but that is it. Above average. Solid. SEC starting caliber quarterback. A guy you can plug into an awesome offense and can depend on to make some good throws. A guy who can help bring a championship if given the right supporting cast. However, he is not the next NFL prodigy. He is not the best player college football has seen this decade…or even this year.

Since the iconic deep ball thrown to ice the 2018 National Championship, the Tua faithful have been all about this kid. I’ve heard claims that he is the next Peyton Manning. That he is a Heisman snub who will take over the NFL. That his arm strength and football IQ are unlike anyone we have ever seen. That his accuracy and mobility in the pocket separates him from the rest of the country. Pete Thamel, an SEC writer for Yahoo Sports, even went so far to say that he is “pretty confident that Tua and Justin Herbert are going to go 1-2 in the draft next year”. Tua has had a great start and he is an awesome young quarterback, but like all things in humanity, he has now regressed back to the mean. In other words, he’s had “beginners luck” and is now going to seem more average.

Tua as a prospect has not changed much. I still think of him as a guy who can succeed at a high level. His struggles lately really have not deterred what I think he can be professionally. If you note back to what I shared in December, I thought he has potential, but is far from being a polished NFL candidate. He has the arm of an NFL prospect and luckily has inherited some of the best weapons college football has ever seen. He has decent mobility in the pocket, but his potential has been limited by his size and injury.

He does a great job seeing all three levels of the secondary, something that cannot be taught easily. However, his offense would be categorized as rather simplistic by NFL standards, but you really cannot blame him for wanting to join the best coach in the history of college football. Alabama also does not have a great track record for placing quarterbacks in the league, but I think the hype around his name and passing efficiency could really bode well for a team willing to spend a pick on him. I think he has a way to go, but what everyone forgets is he is only 20 years old.

Where Does He Rank?

Tua wouldn’t crack the Top 5 for this season’s draft because there are just too many question marks. If he was entering the 2019 draft he would be rated as a mid to late round quarterback, and could learn from a veteran and hopefully blossom into something great. The tape doesn’t lie, and there are definitely several key flaws he will need to improve. Guys like Drew Lock and Dwayne Haskins have done a lot more with a lot less and are seen as more “pro ready” type guys. Luckily, he will have a couple more years to beef up that draft stock and improve on his weaknesses.  

For next year’s class, it’ll be tough. It is so far away and there is so much left to happen, but he has a good chance at becoming one of the top-rated prospects. The 2020 class poses some other great players coming out of highly hyped offense. Sam Ehlinger is coming off a much-improved season and could end up being the top guy come September. Jake Fromm will be another three-year starter who has put out some incredible tape. Justin Herbert was the surefire #1 in the 2019 class, who will test his ability another season. D’Eriq King out of Houston is my dark horse and someone I think could make some noise next year.

Where Will He Get Picked?

Right now, I am starting to think there is too much work to be done before he is a first round pick. The draft is so far away and the SEC journalists will be overhyping his draft stock come August when the masses have forgotten about his atrocious championship performance. My prediction is he will struggle to start the season after coming into it as the Heisman favorite.  Just as good teams did towards the end of this season, teams will pick up on ways to slow down Tagovailoa and he will most likely have a dip in efficiency. I think the Tua vs. Lawrence rivalry could go on a little longer than we expected. Enjoy it Bama fans, and don’t be upset. You might just have your guy for a while.

Am I Just A Hater?

Absolutely not. I really think Tua is a great young quarterback with an amazing skill set. I have watched every snap of Tua’s young career and see a lot of upside and potential, like I mentioned earlier. I do feel strongly that Tua will be an NFL quarterback and I also know that he holds himself to a very high standard. If he does struggle a bit next year, I could definitely see him holding off another year before going to the NFL, because he knows that he has the potential to be much better than a third or fourth round pick. Tua has won a National Championship and went 13-1 in his first season as a starter, it takes a good quarterback to do that regardless of the weapons and defense he is surrounded by. This is just a reminder to not lose focus on the true NFL value Tua holds, and not to let what he could be cloud what he currently is.   

Harris is a recent graduate of Birmingham-Southern College. He now works in Birmingham as well as coaches lacrosse for Mountain Brook High School. He loves following SEC football, covering fantasy football, the NFL Draft, and is also a lifelong Carolina Panthers fan.

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