Front Porch FootballTua Tagovailoa – Overrated
by Harris Oates
Whenever you hear the term “overrated” used in a sport debate it often has a negative connotation. The truth of the matter is that 99.9% of popular sports takes are one of two things: overrated or underrated. That remaining .01% of takes appropriately gives the accurate interpretation. The Media is just a series of overreactions that are further emphasized by the crazy fans that fuel what sports have become. Guys like Skip Bayless have made a career overhyping the hubbub just because they seem to cause a stir with whatever the popular gridiron themes are for that given week. After all, it’s just a game awarded by clicks and pageviews. When reading this try not to lose focus of what overrated really does mean: simply overrated.
This week Tua Tagovailoa is at the center of everyone’s attention as the Heisman ceremony is the talk of the town. He has led the almighty Crimson Tide to a perfect season and Alabama’s fifth consecutive playoff appearance in as many years as it has existed (as well as a National Championship last season). Tua is a Heisman candidate, and a well deserving one too. He’s truly a natural and has done everything he has been asked to do, both on the field and in the locker room. However, he is not my pick for Heisman and he is far from being my pick as the top rated pro ready quarterback prospect. Tua has potential through the roof, but I am not close to being sold on the outlandish claims I hear about him…just yet.
Tua’s Hype
Tua has been great and, in my opinion, deserves his invitation to the Heisman trophy ceremony. He has completed 67% of his passes for 3,300 yards and 37 touchdowns in the hardest sub-conference in football. He also led the Tide to an undefeated regular season and an SEC Championship, ultimately getting injured in the third quarter while trailing Georgia. He has done all this while only throwing 4 interceptions and scoring a passer rating of 202.3. Did I mention he is only a 20-year-old sophomore who was not even named the starting quarterback until minutes before the season opener (to the public, at least. It’d be a lie to say Saban doesn’t always think 12 steps ahead…)?
Well then, how could Tua be Overrated?
If Tua wins the Heisman, he is certainly worthy of it, but I refuse take the bait when I hear he is the best college quarterback in years. On the Rich Eisen show, former elite NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer shared his exuberantly high praise of Tua. Dilfer claims, “he’s a generational talent. The best I’ve ever seen.” I guess tape doesn’t lie, but the best he’s ever seen? Just last season Baker Mayfield threw for 1,300 more yards and six additional touchdowns. Tim Tebow, who lasted barely three seasons in the NFL, threw for as many yards as Tua, but added 18 more touchdowns and 900 yards on the ground. Cam Newton, who has struggled with completion consistency in the NFL, completed 66% of his passes in arguably the most stacked SEC season to date. None of those quarterbacks mentioned had a supporting cast close to what Tua has. Tua is surrounded by the best college football team I have seen in my lifetime, and possibly the best team of all time. He has been great this year, but that success must be kept in perspective before claims of being the best quarterback of all time to come to fruition.
When it comes to Tua’s draft stock, I am not 100% sold either. Is there a chance Tua becomes a successful professional quarterback? Yes, there is obviously a chance, but it is far too soon to even fantasize that. He’s a very accurate college pocket passer, but what the media fails to mention are his major flaws he possesses as well. First, Tua will have to log at least one more season before he can even declare for the draft. There is far too much time in between to draw any conclusion just yet. Then there is the trouble with his height and durability. Finally, he is surrounded by NFL talent including Jerry Jeudy, Damien Harris and Jonah Williams, all potential future first round picks. His defense is arguably the best defense in the country and is also filled with NFL talent. What happens when that threshold for talent tightens? What happens when he starts having to play from behind? At this moment, there are far too many checkpoints to chalk Tua down as a first rounder, no matter what Dilfer says.
Along with the amazing talent, Tua has also benefited from a rather weak schedule full of cupcake opponents such as Louisville, The Citadel and Arkansas State. In the two hardest games of the season, UGA and LSU, he only completed 52% of his passes and threw 3 of his 4 interceptions. In those games he had issues regarding his durability, which will most likely affect his draft stock negatively. Another variable he will face is strong competition among his draft class. Potential quarterback prospects include Dwayne Haskins and Justin Herbert, two guys who offer similar skill sets with much fewer question marks (at the moment).
This time next year, Tua might just have matured enough as well as created a larger sample size that will vanish my concerns. He very well could be a first round selection, but he faces the ultimate test that all quarterback prospects must meet…that he is not draft eligible for 502 days. Unfortunately, being in the spotlight as much as he has, there is a lot of time left to be spent under that microscope.
