North Carolina 2021 Season Preview

by John Lamm

In 2021, Mack Brown is entering the third year in his second stint with the Tar Heels and has completely turned this football program around.  North Carolina finished last season at 8-4 with a trip to the Orange Bowl, after going a combined 5-18 in the two seasons prior to Brown’s return as head coach in 2019.  The big question now is: can North Carolina, with Sam Howell at quarterback, make the next step and win the ACC?  Although they are losing several key offensive weapons, the Tar Heels look to reload with strong depth and become a legitimate contender to take down the Clemson Tigers in the ACC.

Offense

On the downside for this Tar Heel offense, the best 1-2 punch at the running back position is gone. Michael Carter and Javonte Williams each rushed for over 1,100 yards last season and have now moved on to the NFL, along with the top two wide receivers from 2020, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome.  On the plus side for the Heels, though, literally everyone else from the offense is returning. The entire offensive line is back, and there are many strong weapons on this team we will look into. Meanwhile, the leader and star of the team, quarterback Sam Howell, has the potential to win the Heisman and be a top-five pick in the NFL draft next spring.  This offense will be tough to stop.

Departing Starters

Javonte Williams – RB – NFL

Michael Carter – RB – Graduation and NFL

Dyami Brown – WR –  NFL

Dazz Newsome – WR – Graduation and NFL

Quarterback

All-ACC and potential future All-American Sam Howell (6-1, 220) is no doubt the starter on this team.  Howell threw for 30 touchdowns and 3,586 yards with a 68.1 completion percentage in 2020, while adding six rushing touchdowns as well.  Howell shattered expectations in 2019 by setting the ACC freshman record for touchdown passes, and he actually played even better in 2020.  If he takes another step forward as a quarterback, he has the potential to be the best quarterback in the entire country in 2021.  If North Carolina has any chance of winning the ACC and being a dark horse to make the College Football Playoff, Sam Howell is going to have to be elite, and I expect him to be just that. Howell is my early season pick for player of the year in the ACC.

Behind Howell are two very talented quarterbacks who are battling for the second-string job. They are sophomore Jacolby Criswell (6-0, 220) and incoming freshman Drake Maye (6-5, 210).  Criswell saw limited action last year with just four passes, although he did beat out former second-string quarterback Jace Ruder causing Ruder to transfer.  Criswell, a former four-star recruit from Arkansas, has a strong arm and the ability to push the ball down the field, combined  with athleticism and the ability to scramble.  Maye is a former Alabama signee from Charlotte, NC. He reminds many scouts of Mac Jones, who led the Crimson Tide to the national championship in 2020.  Maye is a prototypical pocket-passing quarterback, and the belief is that he is the quarterback of the future for the Tar Heels after Sam Howell departs for the NFL.  

Don’t count Criswell out, though – he will make his own push to be the future of this program, and he has a big fan in offensive coordinator Phil Longo.  I ultimately believe that Maye will be the better quarterback and most likely the starter in 2022, but for this season, Criswell is probably more ready for in-game action, and there is a very good chance he will be the number-two quarterback when the season begins.

Running Backs

This is by far the biggest question mark on this team going into the 2021 season.  As mentioned previously, Michael Carter and Javante Williams were key for this offense last year, rushing for a combined 2,394 yards. Their ability to rush the ball so effectively not only was beneficial on the ground but also helped Sam Howell and the passing game, since opposing defenses always had to respect the run. This season, the Heels need someone to step up and help fill the shoes left by Carter and Williams.  While I don’t expect the same success on the ground for UNC this season (it is hard to top 2,394 yards), I do think the running game will be solid.  

Ty Chandler (6-0, 210), a grad transfer from Tennessee, looks to be the starter for the Heels this season.  Chandler maybe wasn’t as well known as other SEC running backs, but he departed Knoxville with over 2,000 career rushing and 450 receiving yards.  That was good for fifth in the school’s history in all-purpose yards, despite only averaging around ten touches per game. With his ability to run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield, Chandler will be a great fit in this offense.

Although Chandler will most likely be the starter, Phil Longo has shown that he rarely relies on just one running back.   Senior British Brooks (5-10, 210), junior Josh Henderson (5-11, 215), and redshirt freshman Elijah Green (5-11, 205) will be competing to be the number-two back.  My pick is British Brooks to be the second back on this team. While he did not play very much in his first three years with the program, Brooks did rush for 53 yards as the starting back in the Orange Bowl against Texas A&M after Carter and Williams chose to opt out for the NFL draft.  His performance wasn’t stellar, only rushing for 3.5 yards a carry, but it certainly wasn’t bad for a first start in a New Year’s 6 bowl. Brooks has potential to step up and have a successful senior season with more consistent reps.

Another running back to look out for is freshman Caleb Hood (5-11, 230), an excellent power back in high school who also excels as a blocker. If he doesn’t redshirt, look for him to be on the field in blocking situations.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Even though Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown, who combined for 14 touchdowns and 1,783 yards last season, have left for the NFL, the Tar Heel offense should not miss a beat in the passing game.  North Carolina has several talented receivers who are ready to step up and make a big impact in 2021, including senior Beau Corrales (6-3, 210) and sophomores Josh Downs (5-10, 180) and Khafre Brown (6-0, 190).  Last year, Corrales was averaging 18 yards per catch and even had 141 yards against Florida State before being lost to injury after only four games.  A big wide receiver, he is a deep threat with great route running and ball catching skills; look for him to make quite a few big-time plays for this offense.  

Josh Downs did not see much playing time during the 2020 regular season but popped for a massive game against Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl, with four catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns, including one for 75 yards.  I expect Downs to build on that performance  against the Aggies, where he showed that he can be a number-one or number-two receiver. 

Khafre Brown only made 15 catches last season, but he gained 337 yards on those receptions, for an average of more than 22 yards per catch. A big-play threat for this Heels team, Brown missed spring practice with a lower-body injury this year, which right now makes him the number-three receiver on this team, but he still will have an impact in that role.  Each of these receivers has the chance to make an All-Conference team and be a great playmaker for this offense. Other receivers who will see solid playing time this year are senior Antonie Green (6-2, 210), and junior Emery Simmons (6-1, 195). 

Grad student Garrett Walston (6-4, 245) will start at tight end.  A solid down-the-field threat last year, with 19 catches for 255 yards and two touchdowns,  Walston proved to be a good blocker as well.  Another tight end to look out for is sophomore Kamari Morales (6-1, 245).  Morales only had two catches last season, but offensive coordinator Phil Longo has said during the offseason that he plans to expand the roles of both Walston and Morales in the passing game to utilize their athleticism and versatility.

Offensive Line

The North Carolina offensive line is the most experienced position group on the entire roster. All five starters from last season return, including three redshirt seniors: Brian Anderson (6-2, 305), Marcus McKethan (6-6, 335), and Jordan Tucker (6-6, 340).  The other two starting lineman are juniors Asim Richards (6-4, 325) and Joshua Ezeudu (6-4, 325).  Led by offensive line coach Stacy Searels, this line powered the Heels to the second-best rushing (235.8 yards per game) and scoring (41.7 points per game) averages  in the conference and to a league-leading 537.3 total yards per game. Barring injury, this offensive line corps will be even better in 2021, since they will have had more experience playing alongside each other to go along with a full camp this offseason.  

As you can tell by the heights and weights of each player, these lineman are absolutely massive, averaging with average size of 6-5, 326 pounds.  Asim Richards will start the season at left tackle after starting 11 of 12 games last season and playing in over 800 snaps. After missing the first two games of last season, left guard Joshua Ezeudu played in each of the final ten games of the season and was named to the ACC Second-team All-Conference. The Tar Heels’ best offensive lineman, Ezeudu is a preseason pick to be First-team All-Conference this year.  

At center, Brian Anderson started in 11 games last season and was an All-Conference Honorable Mention; he is on several preseason All-Conference teams this year.  Another 2020 All-Conference Honorable Mention, Marcus McKethan started every game at right guard last season while playing 887 snaps. Last but not least, Jordan Tucker will start at right tackle after starting nine games last season; many believe he will also make an All-Conference team in 2021.  This group has a chance to be the best in the ACC.

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Defense

North Carolina lost its best defensive player from last year, Chazz Surratt.  Luckily for the Tar Heels, Surratt was the only starter the defense lost.  Last year’s  defense had its ups and downs, finishing fifth in the ACC in total defense. Although the defense did not play well during certain stretches, giving up 45 points to Virginia Tech and 53 to Wake Forest, it did improve as the season went on, ending the year giving up an average of just over 400 yards and 29 points per game. 

The defense will be entering co-defensive coordinators Jay Bateman and Tommy Thigpen’s third year together and will return a lot of talent and experience.  Much of the issue last season for this defense was youth and inexperience, so  it should be one of the best in the ACC in 2021.  I expect this to be a very solid unit for Coaches Bateman and Thigpen.

Departing Starter

Chazz Surratt – Graduation & NFL

Defensive Line

North Carolina runs a 3-4 defense and returns some very talented and veteran linemen up front.  The leader for this defensive line is potential 2021 All-Conference candidate Raymond Vohasek (6-2, 200).  Vohasek had 29 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks last season and is expected to build on that success this season.  Vohasek is a great run-stopper up the middle but also is expected to play some on the end on third down plays, since he is a very good pass rusher as well.  Look for him to be the best overall defensive lineman on this team.  

Defensive end Tomari Fox (6-1, 290) had a great sophomore season last year, with 46 total tackles and four sacks.   A talented pass rusher, Fox has a chance at All-Conference if he continues to improve as he did from his freshman to sophomore season. Sophomore Myles Murphy (6-3, 305), a former four-star recruit can play both as a nose guard and defensive end in this defense, similar to Vohasek.  While Murphy only made eight tackles last season, he excels at eating up blockers and should be a key run-stopping lineman for this team.  

Adding depth, Jahlil Taylor (5-11, 310), Kevin Hester, Jr. (6-3, 305), and Kedrick Bingley-Jones (6-4, 295) will all also get solid playing time on this line.  

Linebackers

North Carolina returns three of its four starting linebackers from 2020 and should boast one of the best linebacking units in the ACC. Tomon Fox (6-3, 260) will return for his sixth season with the program, after leading the team with seven sacks last year and earning All-Conference Honorable Mention. A leader on this defense, the versatile Fox can play outside linebacker in the base 3-4 defense or on the defensive line in 4-3 defensive sets.  I expect a big final season for Fox, culminating in All-Conference honors.  

The two middle linebackers are absolute studs.  Senior Jeremiah Gemmel (6-1, 225) had 78 tackles last season, earned ACC Linebacker of the Week twice, and was voted a team captain as a junior.  The other middle linebacker, junior Eugene Asante (6-0, 220),  was a back-up last year behind Surratt and finished the season with 27 tackles. Starting for Surratt (who sat out the game) in the Orange Bowl, Asante finished with a career-high ten tackles.  Coaches have been extremely impressed with Asante in the offseason, and some even believe he has the chance to be a better player than Surratt, a two-time First-Team All-Conference linebacker. 

There is a position battle at the other outside linebacker position between sophomore Desmond Evans (6-5, 265) and senior Tyrone Hooper (6-4, 245).  Hooper made 27 tackles as a starter last season, but Evans, a former highly touted four-star recruit, has shown tremendous upside as a pass rusher.  I expect both to get meaningful playing time this year.

Secondary

The secondary for the Tar Heels is deep, with lots of fast athletes in the backfield.  Tony Grimes (6-0, 195) is a former five-star recruit and has the potential to be the best cornerback in the ACC one day.  With 14 tackles and an interception in his freshman season, expect Grimes to be a lockdown corner for the Tar Heels this season. Former Clemson transfer Kyler McMichael (6-0, 210) started eight games last season and finished with 26 tackles and six pass break-ups.  McMichael is a physical corner who plays well in coverage. 

Another potential starter at cornerback is a man with one of the best names in college football, Storm Duck (6-5, 205). Duck is a big corner who missed most of last season with an injury, but after his strong freshman season in 2019, he is considered by many to be a player who will be an important piece of this defense.  Look for Don Chapman (6-1, 200), who had 48 tackles last season, to play nickelback this season as well.

Senior Trey Morrison (5-9, 190) is set to start at free safety.  The leader of the secondary,  Morrison started all 12 games last year, finishing with 39 tackles and an interception and earning All-Conference Honorable Mention.  At  strong safety, there is competition between sophomore Ja’Qurious Conley (6-5, 210) and junior (and former Auburn transfer) Cam’ron Kelly (6-1, 220). Conley played well in the Orange Bowl against Texas A&M, where he started and made five tackles.  The hard-nosed Kelly  started four games last season and finished the year with 55 tackles.  This secondary is going to have a lot of depth.

Special Teams

Special teams  are not a strong suit for North Carolina. The Heels have not returned a punt or kickoff for a touchdown since 2018.  Khafre Brown and Josh Downs are both speedy and will most likely be the main return men in 2021.  Ben Kiernan had a solid year at punter last season, averaging over 43 yards per punt while downing 16 of his 34 punts (47%) inside the 20-yard line.  Former Furman transfer Grayson Atkins will return for a final season as place kicker.  The Tar Heels would like to see a little more consistency from Atkins in 2021, after he went 9-11 on field goals from inside 40 yards but only 3-7 on field goals from beyond 40 yards.  Kickoff specialist Jonathan Kim led the ACC with 76 touchbacks last season.

Impact Players

1. Sam Howell – QB – Howell is one of the best quarterbacks and players in all of college football. There is a lot of hype that he will be both an All-American and Heisman contender this season.  Howell is just one pass away from setting the school record for touchdowns and is likely to pass that record in the first game of the season.  I expect Howell to be the best ACC quarterback this season.
2. Ty Chandler – RB – Chandler enters as a grad transfer from Tennessee.  After losing their 1-2 punch at running back in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, the Tar Heels need Chandler to step up. He is on the Doak Campbell Award Watch List, and although it will not be easy replacing Carter and Williams, Chandler is a talented back who will contribute significantly in the Tar Heel running game.
3. Josh Downs – WR – Downs has a chance to be the best wide receiver on the team this season, and many experts believe that by the time he leaves college, he may be the best receiver in the conference.  After a strong performance in the Orange Bowl in his first collegiate start, expect Downs to make a big jump in 2021 and be a serious weapon for Sam Howell. 
4. Tomon Fox – LB/Edge – Fox has the ability to line up as a defensive end in a 4-3 set as well as play his more frequent role as an edge rusher in the 3-4 base defense.  Fox will be a leader on this defense and has improved every single season.  After 36 tackles and seven sacks in 2020, he will continue to be this team’s best pass rusher.  I predict he will have ten or more sacks this year.
5. Tony Grimes – CB – After Grimes reclassified to enter college a year early last year, he had a strong freshman season.  I expect Grimes to make another step and be this team’s best corner in 2021, proving that he is every bit as good as his five-star rating coming out of high school.

Schedule

9/3 – at Virginia Tech

9/11 – vs Georgia State

9/18 – vs Virginia

9/25 – at Georgia Tech

10/2 – vs Duke

10/9 – vs Florida State

10/16 – vs Miami

10/23 – BYE

10/30 – at Notre Dame

11/6 – vs Wake Forest

11/11 – at Pittsburgh

11/20 – vs Wofford

11/26 – at NC State

Conclusion

This North Carolina team is going to be one of the best in the ACC and will have a chance to go undefeated.  Sam Howell should play as well as advertised this season for the Heels. Their offensive line and receivers, I believe, will be just as good as last year, if not better. The biggest question mark for this offense will be the running game.  I expect the defense to look better than it did a season ago and be one of the better units in the conference.  

The Heels have a relatively easy schedule in 2021 and should be able to win at least nine of their games in their sleep.  The biggest two games of their season will be Miami and Notre Dame. I believe North Carolina will beat Miami in a close game at Chapel Hill and two weeks later will lose to Notre Dame in a nail biter in South Bend. They will be favored to win every other game they play in 2021. After watching the 2020 Tar Heels lose in upsets to Florida State and Virginia, though, I can’t put it past them to be upset in another game this season.  I think this will be a ten-win team which will win the Coastal and have a chance to knock off Clemson to win the conference.

Prediction 10-2