Kennesaw State at Wofford Preview

by Joe James

On a rainy December evening in Kennesaw last year, Justin Thompson kicked a 30 yard field goal to put the Kennesaw State Owls into the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) quarterfinals for a second consecutive year. The fourth year program vanquished the stalwart playoff program Wofford in a game defined by defense and mistakes.

Each team had season lows in rushing and total offense, while converting on less than one-third of all third down attempts. Over 20 percent of each team’s yardage occurred on 50-yard touchdown plays. Neither team found the endzone a second time. The game may have continued into overtime, had Kennesaw State’s Anthony Gore not forced a fumble while sacking Wofford’s Joe Newman inside the Terrier 25 yard line. From there, the Owls only needed 8 yards to set up Thompson’s kick, putting the Terriers away.

But this would not be the final chapter in a budding rivalry, but perhaps just the introduction. Wofford will host Kennesaw State this Saturday, December 30, at 4PM in the opening round of the FCS playoffs.

Since last year, both teams have graduated players, some have had coaches depart, and some schemes have changed. Front Porch Football previewed the matchup (link), and though you could change a few names, correct for some yardage, the matchup is for all intents and purposes the same. Both teams like to run the football, especially with the option. Both teams play tough defense. Both teams are winners and want to elevate themselves to the next level and continue to compete for an FCS national championship.

But the keys to this game won’t be found in that continuity. The changes in details will make the difference.

Season Review: Kennesaw State

Kennesaw State is coming off a 10-2 year, including eight wins against the FCS.  In spite of the success, the two-time Big South Champion is having a down year. The Owls did not receive the Big South’s automatic qualifier or conference championship, having lost two games on the season: one to conference rival Monmouth in a blowout 45-21 at home on November 2nd; the other to a forgettable MAC FBS program in Kent State in overtime.

The Monmouth loss was easily the worst in program history, shattering a 13 game conference win streak and any sense of superiority Kennesaw had over the conference they had pummeled into submission for over two years straight. Still, the Owls managed to win their other six conference games, enough to earn one of the last four bids to the FCS playoffs. But in those victories, chinks in the Owl armor became apparent.

What’s the difference?

On offense, Kennesaw State lost heavily to graduation last year, including three of their top four rushers, their top receiver, and four offensive linemen. This included Payton Award finalist Quarterback Chandler Burks and current CFL wide receiver Justin Sumpter

On defense, the roster turnover was much more favorable, as they returned 19 of 22 players on their two deep, but lost their defensive coordinator Brian Newberry to the Naval Academy. The Owls are good on defense, but they’re not quite the same team statistically.

Kennesaw State still averages over 400 yards of offense, while giving up around 300 yards on defense, but understanding how they compare to last year requires a deeper dive. The key difference this year lies in the Owls’ strength of schedule. Last year, KSU faced one of the toughest out of conference schedules in the FCS, having to play Samford and Jacksonville State in the regular season. In the playoffs, they faced Wofford and South Dakota State. This year, they played one of the weakest schedules in the FCS, facing no team remotely in the conversation for the playoffs, except for Monmouth, who beat them soundly.

The Chart below shows the basic difference in KSU’s from 2018 to 2019 in FCS games: 

Kennesaw State’s Average Yardage per game against FCS competition

On the surface, these numbers seem irrelevant, as they’re roughly the same. The key difference is the Owl’s Strength of schedule. Put simply, the Owls had a slightly tougher defense and more potent offense last year against better competition. If KSU was on the same level as they were last year, you’d expect them to have much more impressive numbers, but that’s just not the case.

In fact, the opposite is true. In 2018, the Owls scored almost 75 percent of the time against the Big South, while also preventing scores on a stunning 86 percent of possessions. But in 2019, those numbers have become more tame 57 percent and 68 percent respectively (Wofford’s averaging 57 percent and 73 percent against Southern Conference competition). 

Indeed, against teams Kennesaw State played in both 2018 and 2019, every single one of them lost to the Owls by a smaller margin. Perhaps all of these teams got better, but it’s more likely that Kennesaw State has just lost a step and is (expectly) missing the defensive coordination of Brian Newberry and the offensive leadership of Chandler Burks, Justin Sumpter and Darnell Holland.

Season Review: Wofford

The Wofford Terriers began their 2019 season stumbling out the gate. Plans to install a new passing and power-run game on offense were delayed after falling to South Carolina State and Samford. The coaching adjustments were brilliantly installed and executed to perfection (link to prior stuff), propelling the Terriers to eight straight FCS wins and an outcome in Death Valley against Clemson indistinguishable from most other ACC results.

Over the course of that FCS winning streak, the Terriers beat seven teams by two or more scores and six by three or more. The defense let up 129 points, but 58 of those points came when the Terriers were up four scores or more, when the game was well in hand.

The Clemson game distorts many of Wofford’s stats in a way other FCS teams won’t experience, but if you factor them out, the Terriers are producing at roughly the same level as last year, regardless of personnel turnover. What makes these stats more impressive is that Wofford played a tougher schedule relative to last year, with the exchange of South Carolina State (8-3 and tied for second in the MEAC) for Presbyterian (2-8 last year, last in the Big South), and programs in the Socon like the Citadel, VMI, and Chattanooga resurging in quality.

What makes Wofford different this year is the offensive changes, delayed after the first month of the season, but fully implemented since the Clemson game. It sounds odd to say, but Wofford isn’t exactly a triple option team as they were last year, so much as they are a run-first-in-every-way team that feels comfortable passing the ball. The Terriers still average over 300 yards rushing a game, but it doesn’t come just from the option as much as it comes from the plays best suited for what the defense gives the Terriers.

To illustrate this, just look at starting quarterback Joe Newman’s rushing stats in the last four games compared to his first 7:

Joe Newman’s 2019 Rushing Statistics:

Wofford’s season of offense can be broken up into 3 sections: 

1. The first two games where they struggled to find their identity on offense, 
2. A five to six game period where they somewhat “went back to the option” but developed different aspects of the power-run and passing game, all while relying on the running ability of Joe Newman
3. The current stretch, where they feel comfortable doing anything they want, from the power run to spreading the field to passing to, indeed, the option

Put simply: Wofford’s offense isn’t an option offense so much as it is a run-first offense and it’s peaking at the right time. It’s hard to stop a team that can spread the field, run the option, feel comfortable throwing the ball, while also utilizing a power run game. 

The Pick

Last year, these teams were able to disrupt each other’s offense by being good defenses in their own right, but also by being able to replicate the offenses in practice. Kennesaw State had an additional week of preparation, having a bye in the FCS playoffs.

This year, it will be much harder for Kennesaw to be as rested, prepared, or readily able to replicate the Terrier offense because of its evolution. If anything, the Terriers may be more prepared coming into this one, because they just came off shutting down another option team in the Citadel last week. The Terriers have successfully shut down run-first, teams in the last four years, including Kennesaw last year, but most recently Furman and the Citadel in the final two games of this season. The Terriers are also aided by having a great defensive quality control coach who can put on some shoulder pads as a great scout team option QB: Chandler Burks.

Another dimension to this game is the Terrier’s confidence and desire for revenge. The Terriers remember the sting of last year’s defeat more than Kennesaw remembers the sweetness of that victory. I’ve seen current and former players tweet about a “rematch” and “revenge.” They want this game, especially given how it ended last year. 

Both teams are experienced in the playoffs and big games, but Wofford has overcome more adversity this year than Kennesaw State. Minor setbacks aren’t going to shake Wofford’s confidence. Between that and Kennesaw State’s inferior performance on both sides of the ball this year, the Terriers smell blood.

Take the Terriers in a relatively low-scoring affair 21-7.