Is ESPN Right?

*This was originally published back in April 2018.*

by Chris Paschal

This past weekend, The Masters dominated Southern sports talk. And rightly so. It was action packed. But while we were all eating our pimento cheese and sipping on our Arnold Palmers, ESPN decided to publish its college football projected win totals for 2018. They claim it is from a computer that surveys thousands of data points, sifts through tons of information, and applies that data to its fool proof algorithm. But as we all know, computers aren’t made by computers. And algorithms aren’t made by algorithms. There is some human input along the way. So I don’t have a ton of respect or fear of ESPN’s computer.

Below you will have my over/under on the win totals for each SEC school. Clemson is also provided. These projected wins aren’t really made for over/under because they are aren’t in .5 intervals, but I’ll try my best. Also, these are off the cuff predictions. These will change throughout the summer. Trust me.

Alabama (10.8): Over. Bama wins at least 11 games. They will go undefeated in non-conference, roll through the East crossover games, and drop at the most one game in the West. I’m not breaking any earth shattering news when I say Bama is still scary good.

Image from 247 Sports

Arkansas (5.9): Over. This is tough. I think they either win five or six games. They have an unbelievably easy non-conference schedule, and they get Vanderbilt at home. So they just need one more. Look out for the LSU game if Arkansas is to get that sixth win. It’s at home and the Hogs have a bye week beforehand.

Auburn (9.1): Under. By .1. Auburn is dropping at least three games. The Tigers have to travel to Tuscaloosa, Starkville, and Athens. I think they at least drop two there. That leaves little room for error.

Clemson (11.4): Over. If I am a Clemson fan, I am almost mad that this schedule is so easy. The schedule includes: at Texas A&M with a new coach (Clemson pulls away in the second half), at Florida State with a new head coach (Clemson pulls away in the second half), home against depleted NC State and Louisville teams, a home showdown against an improved, but still inferior South Carolina team, maybe a challenge at a far inferior, but pesky Georgia Tech. I can’t find it. Clemson goes 12-0.

Florida (8.1): Over. Toughest games on the schedule are at Mississippi State, at Florida State, home South Carolina, and then the rivalry with Georgia. I think they find a way to take two of those. They may drop another, but I think Florida has a huge bounce back season. 9-3, as of right now, feels like the basement.

Georgia (10.9): Under. I think Georgia drops two. Talent-wise, Georgia is good enough to win the National Title. Experience-wise and schedule-wise, they are dropping two. Right out of the gates they have to play in Williams-Brice Stadium. Since 1994, Georgia has only won by more than two possessions once in Columbia. In the last five meetings in Columbia, Georgia has only won twice, and only one of those wins was by two possessions (the second touchdown was on a returned onside kick). This is going to be a tough game. They also have at LSU (tough no matter LSU’s situation), Florida in the rivalry game, Auburn, a Tennessee team that traditionally plays the Dawgs tough. Georgia is going 10-2.

Image from Sports Illustrated

Kentucky (5.4): Under. It’s tough to find six wins on this schedule. For Kentucky to get to six they will have to go undefeated in the non-conference portion (including winning at Louisville), find a way to win a road game in the SEC (at A&M, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri), and upset someone at home (Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi State). It’s definitely doable, but a single slip up and they are looking at a 5-7 season.

LSU (6.2): Over. Barely. This is going to be a team I follow with great fascination this summer. Roster is good enough to win nine or more games. But who plays quarterback? The cry of the Bayou Bengal. And on top of that, questions regarding the offensive line are now present. And Derrius Guice isn’t in Baton Rouge anymore. Miami to open the season is so critical. If LSU comes out swinging, playing lighting fast, and controls the line of scrimmage (e.g. Oregon 2011), they have set the tone that they are meant for business. If they get whacked like they did against Wisconsin in 2016, then this could be a long season. If they lose to Miami (and win the rest of their non-conference games), then they have to find a way to win four games against Arkansas, Auburn, A&M, Bama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia, and Florida. That is a tall order.

Ed Orgeron has a nice team forming this season. Image from USA Today.

Mississippi State (8.4): Under. For the Bulldogs to win nine games, with a new head coach, with a roster that is solid, but not elite, and a non-conference road game at Kansas State would be incredible. Fitzgerald is back, so it’s not completely crazy, but I think the Bulldogs drop four SEC games, even if they find a way to win in Little Manhattan against the KSU Wildcats.

Missouri (7.3): Under. ESPN’s computer has a fantastic sense of humor. There’s no way this is real. First, Missouri lost their offensive mastermind in coordinator Josh Heupel and replaced him with Front Porch Football cult hero Derek Dooley. Second, Missouri has not recruited at a high enough level to compete in the East. They took advantage of fiascos at Tennessee and Florida to gain bowl eligibility last year. Third, their schedule has road games at Purdue, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama. Home games against Georgia, Arkansas, and Memphis. And of course there is still Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Yet somehow Missouri is supposed to win seven, maybe eight games. You got jokes ESPN.

Ole Miss (6.3): Over. This offense is going to be filthy. Biggest concern offensively is depth. I think they can find a way to win seven games. The defense is going  to have to play out of their minds in some of those wins, but I’m going of gut here. I think they win seven games. Opening win over Texas Tech would be huge.

South Carolina (7.3): Over. Again with the jokes, ESPN. The Gamecocks have a comparable if not easier schedule than last year’s, they have a more experienced roster and a much a more talented roster. They have what should be a more dynamic offensive play calling scheme with fewer questions on the offensive line. Not to mention a way faster defense. Yet, ESPN thinks they are going to regress in 2018? ESPN also picked South Carolina to regress in 2017, which did not happen. I think this is a 9-3 team. The three hardest games are home Georgia, at Florida, at Clemson. There is a very solid chance they steal one of those. Even if they don’t, I doubt they drop more than one other game. The other SEC road games are Ole Miss, Kentucky, Vanderbilt. Could be a lot worse. Tennessee and Texas A&M come to Williams-Brice with new head coaches. If you think South Carolina is winning seven, maybe eight games, you’re either employed by ESPN or a Clemson fan.

Tennessee (5.8): Under. Another tough call. I think Tennessee is going to compete a lot better this season. Talent-wise they are right there with South Carolina (maybe Kentucky), farther behind Florida and Georgia, but still better than Vanderbilt and Missouri. Problem is they open the season in Charlotte against West Virginia and their high powered offense, and then pull Bama and Auburn from the West. That’s asking a ton. Six wins are definitely not out of the question, but if I were a betting man I am taking the under here.

Texas A&M (7.4): Under. Clemson in Week 2. SEC West schedule. New head coach. Road game at South Carolina. Too much for me to say anything more than seven wins.

Vanderbilt (3.9): Under. Vandy is a tough team to project for because talent-wise they should lose most if not every SEC game they play in. And then they have Notre Dame on the schedule. Commodore fans, I am going with the under just because it doesn’t make sense to go with the over, but I know you will do some crazy crap where you win against Georgia or South Carolina or something.