Gamecocks Statistical Report Before Texas A&M and Why Michael Scarnecchia Should Start Over Jake Bentley

by Lee Wardlaw, Guest Writer

Columbia, SC- Bruised and broken from a 24-10 walloping on the road against Kentucky, the 2-2 (0-2, SEC) South Carolina Gamecocks desperately needed a win against the Missouri Tigers in the Columbia Cup at Williams-Brice Stadium last weekend to keep their hopes of a winning season intact.

Thankfully, South Carolina got what they needed with a 37-35 victory, winning their third straight game over Missouri.

The game got really weird in the second half when heavy rain engulfed the field, which was likely the result of three total fumbles. There was also nine lead changes and offensive fireworks.

Some might say the Gamecocks were lucky to win the game, but that wasn’t the case, as they made the big plays at the right time, and demonstrated plenty of heart, as emotionally demonstrated by head coach Will Muschamp.

Ringleaders of the victory included Gamecocks’ replacement starting quarterback Michael Scarnecchia, who completed 20 of 35 passes for 249 yards and three touchdowns, and the red zone defense, which allowed only three Missouri touchdowns and field goals each in eight trips inside of the 20-yard line.

Michael Scarnecchia’s performance helped South Carolina pull out the win. Image from Orlando Sentinel.

You have to give credit to Scarnecchia, who hasn’t received a whole lot of playing time in his career. Instead, he’s helped call signals and learned the playbook.

Even if he never starts another game with Jake Bentley returning from a knee injury this Saturday, he’ll always have a place in Gamecock lore, leading the team to victory in a wild game and playing the underdog role by outgunning Lock.

A win gives South Carolina momentum headed into a big contest this weekend with Jimbo Fisher and the 22nd-ranked Texas A&M Aggies, a team that has looked strong all season, defeating a 5-0 Kentucky last weekend and only losing to top-five Clemson and Alabama.

A winning season looks like a stronger likelihood now, as games vs. Tennessee, at Ole Miss, and vs. Chattanooga seem very winnable. Nevertheless, the Gamecocks never expected to be in this position during the preseason, and were expected to play the spoiler role in the SEC East this season.

Before we talk about that though, let’s just think what a loss to Missouri would’ve done to the program’s psyche. If the Gamecocks were to fall to 0-3 in conference play with daunting contest coming up with 22nd-ranked Texas A&M, 14th-ranked Florida, and 4th-ranked Clemson, fans would hit the panic button.

South Carolina’s win against Missouri was much needed for the program. Image from Post and Courier.

Most would assume the program would finish 5-6 with another loss to rival Clemson to finish the season.

Then, in a desperate attempt to reach bowl eligibility, athletic director Ray Tanner could follow the ‘Florida State model’ and schedule a opponent to come to Williams-Brice Stadium on conference championship weekend to make up the cancellation of the Marshall game.

What got third-year Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks to this point, though, anyway? Is it the defense’s fault?

According to Football Study Hall, the top deciding factors for winning or losing a college football game is explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.

Explosiveness: Yards per play, PPP, PPP+

Efficiency: Success rate, third down conversions

Field position: average starting field position, FPA

Finishing drives: Points per trip inside the 40, red zone scoring, red zone S&P+

Turnovers: turnover margin, adj. turnover margin, turnovers luck

 Let’s break down how the Gamecocks’ defense has performed in these statistics this season.

Weaknesses: Run Defense and Yards Allowed Per Play

The simplest metric for measuring explosiveness is offensive yards per play. The South Carolina defense ranks 94th nationally in passing yards allowed per completion with 11.42. The total rushing defense is also among the nation’s worst, ranking 99th nationally.

The SEC is having a field day against the Gamecocks on the ground, and teams not named Vanderbilt that have faced South Carolina average 254 yards per game on the ground so far.

Georgia had three different runners score a touchdown, and the group averaged 5.2 yards per carry on the way to a 271-yard performance. Led by seventh-ranked overall yardage back Benny Snell Jr., Kentucky totaled 195 yards against South Carolina.

Finally, Missouri’s running backs pounced on the group, with Damarea Crockett (154 yards) and Larry Rountree III (90 yards) led a unit who finished with 286 yards.

The defense’s inability to decrease the opposition’s explosiveness may be a problem, but you can’t blame the unit as a whole for South Carolina’s inability to meet expectations this fall.

Defense Keeps Gamecocks Competitive

This is because South Carolina’s defense has a bend-but-not break mentality that has kept them in games all season, and the group has been superb in stopping opposition in two other categories: efficiency and finishing drives.

One of the two factors listed in offensive efficiency  by Football Study Hall is third down conversion rate. South Carolina is 4th in the nation in stopping third downs, with opponents only converting 15 of 60 attempts.

Will Muschamp’s team has also been really good at keeping teams out of the end zone. Opponents only score 1.8 touchdown per game and 1.2 field goal per game when coming within the 20-yard line against South Carolina, which ranks 29th nationally.

When Kentucky recovered a Rico Dowdle fumble with 12:06 remaining in the 1st quarter on the 12-yard line, South Carolina held strong, only giving up a field goal. The defense was in disarray for most of the first half, but they kept the team in striking distance in the entire second half, holding to three punts, an interception, and a missed field goal, resulting in zero points for the Wildcats in the second half.

South Carolina has a bend-but-not break mentality. Image from USA Today.

The offense only capitalized on one occasion, a touchdown throw on what appeared to be a ‘prayer’ from quarterback Jake Bentley.

The Gamecocks nearly pitched a shutout against Vanderbilt inside of the 20-yard line, as the Commodores scored one touchdown and zero field goals in three appearances.

It gets better: despite giving up 35 points, the defense only allowed three touchdowns and three field goals to Missouri on eight red zone trips last weekend. If they scored on each attempt, that would be 56 points.

Again, explosiveness is a major factor, and one common way to calculate this is offensive yards per play. The Gamecocks are 54th in the nation in this category, giving up 5.3 yards per attempt.

The passing defense gives up 11.42 yards per attempt and the rushing defense is terrible, but the unit puts out opponent efficiency and finishing drives like a fire extinguisher. Not only that, but let’s not forget that the overall passing defense is 12th in the nation, only allowing 168.4 yards per game.

While the defense isn’t perfect, they’ve kept the Gamecocks within striking distance all season, discounting a blowout loss to 2nd-ranked Georgia.

South Carolina’s passing defense is 12th in the nation. Image from South Carolina Athletics.

Turnover Margin

As one of the five factors demonstrated by Football Study Hall, turnover margin is huge in determining the winner and loser of college football games. This was a big factor in allowing South Carolina to succeed with a 9-4 record in 2017, as they finished 13th nationally in this category.

This season, the Gamecocks margin is -3, a despicable number that ranks 106th nationally. South Carolina is tied with perennial college football bottom feeders like Louisiana-Lafayette, East Carolina, and Arkansas in this category.

South Carolina’s turnover margin is among the worst in the nation this year, but they finally won the turnover battle last week against Missouri. Michael Scarnecchia didn’t throw a single interception last weekend, and the Gamecocks only fumble from punter Joseph Charlton was a result of the miserable field conditions.

Regular starting Jake Bentley has been intercepted six times in three conference games. While that number is very bad, it’s not totally his fault. Running backs have fumbled the ball away three times, as well.

Jake Bentley has struggled against conference opponents. Image from Associated Press.

With Bentley as starter, the Gamecocks have a -5 turnover margin in conference play. Those six interceptions? South Carolina ranks 91st in the nation for passed intercepted this season. That means only 31 teams have been picked off more.

Explosiveness

The Gamecocks rank near the bottom of the nation in passing yards per completion, a big factor in offensive explosiveness, as they are 94th in the nation with 11.42 yards per completion.

Scarnecchia averages a total of 12.5 yards per completion on 27 completions in two games played. Bentley averages 11.03 yards per completion on 84 completions.

If you take out Scarnecchia’s numbers, South Carolina would be tied with Connecticut for 102nd in passing yards per completion. In any statistical category, especially one that is important, nobody wants to be next to UConn.

While his numbers are a big reason for concern, you can’t solely blame Bentley for offensive woes. South Carolina’s rushing attack is mediocre, with 169.2 yards per game, good for 74th in the nation. They rush for 4.72 yards per carry.

 Other Notable Offensive Numbers

Finishing drives: ranked 65th in the nation in red zone scoring, with five touchdown passes, six rushing touchdowns, and seven field goals.

Efficiency: ranked 49th in the nation with a .420 percent third down conversion rate

Lee Wardlaw is a 21-year old rising senior at the University of South Carolina pursuing a bachelor’s degree majoring in Multimedia and minoring in Business. He was born and raised in Columbia and started sports writing in middle school, and has continued since. From 2009-2012, he wrote for Bleacher Report, as well as writing for SEC’s Fansided Blog “Southbound and Down” from 2015-16. Finally, he wrote for the Daily Gamecock from 2016-2017. Lee is a born Gamecock and loves college football, and enjoys to present his opinion in a compelling way through writing.