FPF Draft Central Game of the Week: Alabama vs. Ole Miss

by Harris Oates

Film Study – Tua Tagovailoa

Film Analyzed: 2019 vs. South Carolina – (28/36 444 yards 5 TDs and 0 ints), 2019 vs. Duke – (26/31 336 4 TDs and 0 ints), 2019 Championship Game vs. Clemson – (22/34 295 yds 2 TDs and 2 ints – Team Ran the Ball 37 times), 2018 Iron Bowl vs Auburn – (25/32 324 yds 5 TDs and 0 ints)

Strengths

• Above average athleticism, can read run blocks well
• In pocket scrambling ability
• Quick release – Generally, gets rid of ball within 3 seconds
• Solid accuracy on all three levels
• Fits ball in well around defenders 
• Minimal amount of turnovers, one of the best decision makers in the country when it comes to protecting the ball
• Outstanding production, regardless of talent around him

Weaknesses

• Late in the 2018 season team typically elected to run the ball in crunch time situations, especially red zone. Probably in part due to playing through injury/on a rough stretch.
• Tends to stare down Jeudy on big plays. A lot of instances he will lock onto Jeudy for 3 seconds from snap to throw because he knows that he will beat his man. This didn’t work out against Clemson when future NFL CB AJ Terrell intercepted him for a pick six to set the momentum of the championship
• Struggled against ranked opponents in 2018 – a lot to prove this season

• Overthrows often
• RPO – probably won’t be running that in the NFL
• Durability

Synopsis

Tua has already shown great growth since the disappointing end to the 2018 season. It seems that he his release has even become quicker than it was a year ago. He has a big arm and has been extremely efficient and accurate. However, he really hasn’t faced a real test this season (and won’t until the Tide faces Texas A&M).

Although he has put up amazing numbers, I am not sold on Tua being the top QB in the class. I think he has been a bit overhyped by the media and often has been bailed out by his weapons. He has posted flashy statistics, but a fair percent of those have come from Alabama’s mismatch in skills, and RPO Offense, neither of which will be likely present in the NFL. Also don’t forget that a large portion of Tua’s yards and touchdowns (and inflated stats) are due to having the best yards after catch (YAC) quartet in college football.  

As of now Tua is in the top 5 QB comparison for the draft class. If he can finish the season off with a convincing run against top opponents and continue the consistency he has shown with his numbers and efficiency he very well could go first overall. On the other hand, if he struggles again down the stretch we could ultimately see him slip behind newly emerging star Joe Burrow or rival Jake Fromm. 

Draft Grades:

Arm Strength: A

Short/Mid Accuracy: A-

Deep Accuracy: A-

Experience: A

Durability: D

Consistency: B-

Pro Style Experience: C

Mental Processing: B-

Leadership A-

Overall: B+

Others to Watch:

Jerry Jeudy (Alabama – WR – #4): Consensus top 10 pick for 2020 draft, just turn on the game and you will know why. The best hands in the draft; the best route runner in the draft; and the best athlete in the draft. 

Najee Harris (Alabama – RB – #22): Would it be an Alabama roster without a running back who will probably start in the NFL? No, no it wouldn’t. Harris may be the best pro running back Saban has had the chance to coach, and that is saying something. It may sound crazy, but he is a guy who is going to put up better stats as a bellcow NFL back than sharing the backfield in Saban’s pass first offense (much like Jacobs). 

Scottie Phillips (Ole Miss – RB – #22): He is a skilled RB who will surely get a shot as a change of pace back in the league. In 2018 he took his limited 150 carries for 928 yards and 12 TDs and added 2 more through the air. At 5’9” he will need to have another impressive campaign to deem himself worthy of a draft pick. 

Trevon Diggs (Alabama – DB – #7): Diggs, who was primarily a special teamer in the past, has emerged as one of Alabama’s top defensive players. Cut from an NFL pedigree (brother Stefon plays for the Vikings), Diggs is a prototypical NFL defensive back prospect. 

Week 5 Picks:

Alabama (-38) 55, Ole Miss 14

UVA 28, Notre Dame (-12.5) 25

Washington (-10.5) 30, USC 16

Wisconsin (-24.5) 65, Northwestern 10 

Auburn 42 (-10.5), Miss St 0

Last Week

Auburn 35, Texas A&M 17 (-4)

Wisconsin 28(-3), Michigan 10 

BYU 30, Washington 20 (-6.5)

UVA 55 (-27), ODU 7

Oklahoma State 30, Texas 28 (-7)