Carolina and Tennessee: Who Has the Advantage?

by Lee Wardlaw, guest writer

The SEC Football world will revolve around World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party between seventh-ranked Georgia and ninth-ranked Florida this weekend, and for good reason. College Gameday will be on hand for a battle that should go a long way into determining who will represent the Eastern Division for the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta on December 1st.

289 miles north, another important battle will commerce, however. At Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC, third-year head coach Will Muschamp and the 3-3 South Carolina Gamecocks will face the 3-4 Tennessee Volunteers, who are led by rookie head coach Jeremy Pruitt, a defensive-minded Nick Saban disciple from Alabama.

A mainstay on the conference schedule in the last weekend of October, the two schools might not be competing for a College Football Playoff berth or a bid in a New Year’s Six bowl bid, but the conference rivalry game has implications of its own.

It’ll be a measuring stick for the respective programs, who both want to accomplish two things: finish with a strong season and position itself for a postseason bowl bid, which would hopefully end up leading to a successful finish on the recruiting trail.

In the win-loss category, they’re deadlocked. Both the Gamecocks and the Volunteers are 1-3 in conference play. After Saturday, the gap will widen. With the winner moving to 2-3, there’s improved momentum and hope to finish strong. The loser, falling to 1-4, can finish .500 at best.

They’re not far apart in the either the win-loss category or the national recruiting rankings, either. South Carolina finished 18th nationally in recruiting in 2018, while the Volunteers tallied 21st.

This season is similar, according to the Knoxville News. “UT currently ranks 14th based on its 20 commitments for 2019. South Carolina is two spots back with 18 commitments.”

The result will also help define the answer of each program’s direction headed into the future. Did South Carolina reach its full peak under Steve Spurrier, where they won 42 games from 2010-2013?

Muschamp will be given time to build the program, but it’s not going to be easy next season. Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky look like they’re apart of their own class, and the 2019 schedule features seven opponents that are currently ranked.

One thing is certain: losing ground to the Vols and falling to 1-4 in conference play wouldn’t help a thing.

On the other hand, is Tennessee finally showing signs of life after a 30-28 road upset over Auburn? From 1994 through 2004, the Volunteers never won fewer than eight games. The program was 12-1 against the Gamecocks before Spurrier arrived.

Since 2005? Seven overall losing records, ten seasons in conference play under .500, and a coaches graveyard that includes Derek Dooley, Lane Kiffin, and Butch Jones. It’s doubtful that either three could’ve mustered a win over Auburn on the road, and a win against South Carolina, a program that used to own, would provide plenty of signs of relief on Rocky Top.

Tennessee’s proven more this season, with a somewhat quality win on the road against Auburn. Plus, they’ve faced a murders’ row with losses to 1st-ranked Alabama, 7th-ranked Georgia, 9th-ranked Florida, and 13th-ranked West Virginia.

Alabama was the most recent of tough opponents the Vols have faced. Image from Knoxville News Sentinel.

However, Gamecocks’ head coach Will Muschamp appears to have his number with Tennessee in his six-year stint in the conference. A 6-0 record against the Vols is the number-one reason he even holds a winning record in conference games coached, totaling at 27-26.

Not only that, but even South Carolina’s struggling third-year starting quarterback Jake Bentley thrives against Tennessee, as he seems to show out against mediocre competition. In two contests against the Vols, he’s completed 30 of 44 passes for 296 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Both the coach and quarterback contributed and celebrated the program’s first signature win in 2016 against then 18th-ranked Tennessee. Since then, the Gamecocks are 0-7 against ranked competition with the combo.

It could be the medicine Bentley needs. South Carolina is due for a win after so many errors in winnable games against Texas A&M and Kentucky. Not only that, but Williams-Brice should be buzzing for a primetime 7:30 kickoff.

We’re all keenly aware of the Gamecocks ability the wrong mistakes at the wrong time though, and we haven’t seen much evidence that they can finish a close game. With a number of advantages in key statistical categories, you have to at least wonder why South Carolina is favored by 7 1/2 points by our money-minded friends in Las Vegas.

I’ll give you a better glimpse of this Saturday’s matchup with my analysis, featuring five key statistical factors highlighted in my previous article.

Jake Bentley has struggled against conference opponents. Image from Associated Press.

Passing Explosiveness

Advantage: Tennessee

Passing the ball moves the chains, and while the Volunteers don’t throw for as many yards as South Carolina, they’re actually one of the nation’s best in passing yards per completion.

It hasn’t seemed to matter who the opponent is or who is playing behind center, either.

Tennessee ranks 16th in the nation with 14.54 yards per completion, and they’ve faced opponents such as Florida and Georgia, who are the first and second ranked passing defenses in the league in terms of total yards allowed.

Solely using Guarantano’s numbers, the Vols would rank 20th in the nation in the category. However, backup Keller Chryst is averaging 16.4 yards per completion in conference play and didn’t have a bad showing against Alabama.

Tennessee has an impressive average passing yards per completion. Image from Associated Press.

Maybe it shouldn’t be read too seriously  into, as the Volunteers were crushed by everyone of note other than the win against Auburn.

Certainly better than 90th nationally however, which is thanks largely in part to Jake Bentley. The number sits comfortably behind powerhouses such as SMU and Wake Forest.

Rushing Explosiveness

Advantage: Tennessee

Running back Ty Chandler receives the bulk of handoffs for the Vols, averaging 4.89 yards per carry, good for 85th in the nation. On the other hand, Gamecocks’ top running back Rico Dowdle ranks 119th in the country with 4.23 yards per carry.

Tim Jordan also has helped Tennessee’s running game this year. Image from ABC Sports.

Total yards are in favor of South Carolina, who averages 153.7 yards per game, 7.1 more than Tennessee. Both haven’t been able to muster much, but whoever can manage to find more might win the game.

Tennessee Offense Finishing Drives vs. South Carolina Defensive Finishing Drives

Advantage South Carolina

South Carolina has a slight advantage in this category, and the Gamecocks’ defense has had a bend-but-not-break mentality ever since Muschamp has been head coach. Sure, they’re far from perfect, but they can at least keep the team in games, at least until Jake Bentley throws another interception.

Jaycee Horn has helped South Carolina a ton at corner this year. Image from USA Today.

The unit is 43rd in the nation, allowing 10 rushing touchdowns, 3 passing touchdowns, and 9 red zone field goals. Tennessee, on the other hand, has scored touchdowns on 4 passes and 9 rushes. The question is whether or not the Gamecocks can contain the Vols’ rushing attack in the red zone.

South Carolina Finishing Drives Offense vs. Tennessee Finishing Drives Defense

Advantage: South Carolina

It’s not like the Gamecocks are particularly special in the red zone on defense, but they aren’t terrible. South Carolina is 86th in the nation when it comes to scoring inside the 20-yard line, with only 12 total touchdowns.

The good news? Tennessee’s red-zone defense has been a complete and total disaster this season. On 24 attempts, opponents have scored 11 rushing touchdowns, 6 passing touchdowns, and 6 field goals. That’s a .958% success rate. If the Gamecocks offense can’t get it done in the red zone in this game, the unit will be deemed a complete failure.

South Carolina isn’t really special in the Red Zone. Image from The Tennessean.

Tennessee Offense vs. South Carolina Defense on Third Down

Advantage: South Carolina

An underrated measure that can be huge in deciding the winner or loser of a college football game, this is one area that the Gamecocks perform very well in, for a change.

In six games, opponents have only converted 18 of 73 attempts.

That means South Carolina is ranked 4th nationally in the category, as opponents have only converted .247% of attempts. They’ll attempt to utilize their strength as Tennessee has only moved the chains on .375% of 96 attempts.

South Carolina Offense vs. Tennessee Defense on Third Down

Advantage: Tennessee

Neither the Gamecocks or the Vols are so great in this category, but third down conversions are big for an offense when it comes to determining the winner of a college football game.

South Carolina’s offensive conversion rate on third down is actually higher than Tennessee’s ability to stop it, but defensive coordinator Kevin Sherrer’s unit has a higher ranking in the category.

Let’s further analyze:

• South Carolina third down offense: 64th in NCAA, 31 of 78, .397%

• Tennessee third down defense: 59th in NCAA, 33 of 87, .379%

There doesn’t appear to be a huge difference, but it’ll be a big factor on Saturday.

Turnover Margin

Advantage: Tennessee

Keeping your job in college football coaching is about winning. With this being said, turnover margin is huge in deciding the winner or loser of a game.

Every time head coach Will Muschamp decides to start a quarterback in Jake Bentley who has thrown 7 interceptions in only five games (tied with Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald for most in the SEC), the chances that he continues to stay the head coach at South Carolina decrease.

I’m not saying Muschamp is not the right man for the job, but at this rate, every time the Gamecocks start Jake Bentley, the odds continue to grow that they will lose the football game. He’s averaging 1.4 interceptions per contest, accounting for 58.3% of all turnovers for a team that ranks 115th nationally in turnover margin with a -5 rate.

Turnovers are a huge factor for deciding who wins games. Image from Kingsport Times-News.

Tennessee’s Jarrett Guarantano, on the other hand, has only thrown two interceptions. Overall, the Volunteers have a -1 margin. If Bentley can somehow limit his ability to turn the ball over, South Carolina’s defense needs to create some fumbles. 80% of the Vols’ 10 turnovers have been fumbles.

Perhaps the return of Gamecocks’ top tackler from 2017, defensive lineman D.J Wonnum, will help.