Can Mack Brown Turn the Tar Heels Around?

by Chris Paschal

The last time we saw Mack Brown on a college football field, in the words of Steve Harvey, “it didn’t go good.” The once proud college football coach was shown the door after going 8-5 during the 2013 college football season. 8-5 might be alright for some schools, but when you go 8-5 at Texas, especially when it’s your fourth straight season with less than ten wins, you get fired. Mack looked tired. He looked like a grandpa. Hell, he is a grandpa.

Now we are supposed to believe that after a few years as a college football analyst on ESPN that Mack is ready to return to big-time coaching at the ripe old age of 67 (68 when the season begins). Not only that, but Mack is taking over a North Carolina program that has won five games in the past two years. He’s being asked to save the Tar Heels like he did back in the 90s. To understand what is being asked of Coach Mack, we first have to examine what he did during his first stint with the Tar Heels.

North Carolina in the 90s

This is pretty uncommon. Except for Johnny Vaught at Ole Miss and Johnny Majors with Pittsburgh, I cannot think of another coach that had two separate stints at the same university. Yet despite how uncommon a practice this is, Mack Brown is returning to North Carolina. Mack coached the Tar Heels from 1988-1997 before leaving for Texas. Now, in 2019, Mack returns. Why is North Carolina going back to Mack? In part, it’s because the 90s were some of the best years in Tar Heel football history. Let’s look at why.

Steve Spurrier Made UNC Football Hungry

Before the Head Ball Coach was winning championships at Florida and breaking records at South Carolina, he was terrorizing the Tarheels as Duke’s head coach. While in Durham (1987-1989), Spurrier went 3-0 against North Carolina, including a 41-0 thrashing in Chapel Hill in 1989.

From 1970-1986, Duke had beaten North Carolina just three times in 17 tries. That all changed with Spurrier. Duke claiming three straight Victory Bells stuck in the craw of a lot of North Carolina fans. Heading into the 1990s, North Carolina fans were ready to see a winner.

Recruiting Well

The state of North Carolina may be better known for its prowess on the basketball court, but it is one of the best high school football states in the country, as well. Mack Brown knew that, and he recruited the state hard. What do I mean by that? I mean Mack didn’t just hit the greater Charlotte and Raleigh areas and call it quits. He didn’t rely on name recognition. Instead, he went from town to town throughout the state of North Carolina scouting and looking for talent. And boy did he find some. Especially in the state’s coastal plain. Mack was able to find and sign Marcus Jones, Greg Ellis, Alge Crumpler, Brian Simmons, Andre Purvis, and Julius Peppers – all natives of small towns in Eastern North Carolina.

But it wasn’t just the fence that Mack built around the state of North Carolina that made him such a great recruiter. Mack was able to find and recruit great talent in border states, as well. Players like Jeff Saturday from Georgia, Vonnie Holliday from South Carolina, and Dre Bly from Virginia, all played for Mack in the 1990s.

Mack Brown vs. NC State

When you look back at the history of both North Carolina and NC State football, you recognize something pretty telling. Except in the 1970s, North Carolina and NC State have never been good simultaneously. In the 1960s, NC State won the ACC four times. North Carolina won once. In the early 1980s, NC State was the punching bag of the ACC. North Carolina finished no worse than third. Again, things changed in the late 1980s.

Mack Brown started out winless against NC State. From 1988-1992, State beat North Carolina five consecutive times.

1993 changed everything. That year, North Carolina brought in freshman Andre Purvis at defensive tackle, Jeff Saturday on the offensive line, and Brian Simmons and Greg Ellis as pass rushers. Mack Brown would not lose another game to NC State. From 1993-1997, NC State would win 28 games. North Carolina would win 46.

Beating NC State on the football filed usually goes hand in hand with beating NC State on the recruiting trail. And because it is very rare for NC State and North Carolina both to be good at football simultaneously, it was crucial for Mack to beat NC State in the 90s. And he did just that.

The Current Situation In Chapel Hill

Ever since Mack left in 1997, North Carolina has been a mess in football. To some Tar Heel fans, that may seem harsh, but North Carolina has gone 123-129 since 1998. During that time span, North Carolina has had eight losing regular seasons, the same number of losing seasons as East Carolina.

Speaking of ECU, North Carolina has lost three in a row to the Pirates. North Carolina has also lost three in a row to South Carolina. North Carolina is 2-6 when facing teams from the SEC since Mack Brown left. Since 2007, NC State is 9-3 against North Carolina.

North Carolina has been hit with Academic Misconduct allegations. The NCAA investigated the program for players receiving improper benefits. It seemed every time North Carolina took a step forward, it would take two steps back.

North Carolina is coming off of back-to-back horrible seasons. The current situation in Chapel Hill is not a good one. Duke has won three straight over North Carolina. Last time that happened, Mack Brown was able to turn things around.

What Mack Needs To Change

The ACC Coastal might be the weakest division in college football. Georgia Tech and Miami have just hired new coaches. Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Duke have hit their ceilings, in my opinion. Virginia Tech looks to be regressing under Fuente. The division is ripe for the taking. But if North Carolina is going to start dominating the division, Mack is going to need to rebuild that fence around North Carolina.

Since 2011, North Carolina has signed 30 of the state’s top 135 prospects. Todd Gurley (Georgia), Dexter Lawrence (Clemson), Bryce Love (Stanford), and Pharoh Cooper (South Carolina) all opted to leave the state. Five-stars like D.J Humphries (Florida) left. Four-stars like Kris Frost (Auburn) left. Hell, even three-stars like Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) left. Look at almost every SEC roster. North Carolina natives are littered throughout them. Think about this, Tennessee has signed the top prospect from North Carolina three times since 2011. The Tarheels have only been able to sign the top in-state prospect once since 2011.

If North Carolina signs the top talent in-state, they compete with Clemson in the ACC.

That is not an exaggeration. The talent in the state of North Carolina is top-notch, and this upcoming year’s crop is no different. Good news for North Carolina, right? Maybe. These aren’t the 1990s. Mack is going to have to build a taller and stronger fence than he did back then. Things move at a much faster pace. Underclassman are already taking visits and committing to schools. Seven of the top 15 prospects (according to 247Sports) in the state of North Carolina are already committed. Only two of those seven are committed to UNC. In theory, that leaves the other eight uncommitted prospects for North Carolina to work with.

Mack can’t miss on these kids. The top-ranked prospect in the state of North Carolina, Desmond Evans, is from Lee County, a small county in the middle of the state that is about a fifteenth the population of Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh) counties. Sounds like one of those small town guys that Mack located and signed back in the 90s, right? The only problem is that there is this thing called the internet now and Desmond Evans is no secret. Evans is considered one of the best pass rushers in this recruiting cycle, and has Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Florida and Tennessee all courting him. The biggest threat to North Carolina, however, are two teams that Mack will face in the 2019 season – South Carolina and NC State. South Carolina head coach, Will Muschamp, has personally handled the recruitment of Evans.

But it’s not just Evans. Trenton Thompson, Mohamed Kaba, Myles Murphey, Ja’Quirious Conley, Kendrick Bingley-Jones, Jacolbe Cowan, are Mushin Muhammed III are prospects that North Carolina would love to get. If Mack is to be successful, he has to be able to land these guys. North Carolina in the 90s got these guys, and because of that, they won. North Carolina as of late did not get these guys, and because of that, they lost. It’s as simple as that.

I don’t know what the 2019 season has in store for North Carolina, but if Mack is to convince these in-state kids that he can build the Tar Heels back into winners, he’s got to win some games he shouldn’t. The schedule is bookended with South Carolina to kick the season off in Charlotte and with a road visit at NC State. Those are the two programs North Carolina has to surpass if they are to start winning recruiting battles. The rest of the schedule is just as tough with Clemson coming to town and App State coming into town as a non-conference opponent.

At 68, Mack can’t have a worst-case scenario this season. He can’t afford that. I think they lose to South Carolina in Charlotte and lose to Miami the next week in Chapel Hill. The following two games of Wake Forest and App State are crucial. Win those two, and Mack may start to get things in the right direction. Lose those two (or even just one of them), and Mack is staring down the barrel of a losing season.

Unfortunately for North Carolina and Mack Brown, I just don’t see it. If Mack can get these top in-state prospects to sign even with a losing season (a testament to the energy of his staff), he may survive. But if North Carolina finishes with a losing record in 2019, and a recruiting class outside the top 25 next February, this thing may crash before it has even taken off.