Front Porch FootballBattle in the West: Preview of Alabama at LSU
by Chris Paschal
The sun will find its home in the western sky well before kickoff on November 3rd, and it will once again be Saturday night in Death Valley. We have all been waiting for this. I don’t care if Alabama goes on to play in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia, or if they face Michigan or Clemson in the playoffs, this game at Tiger Stadium, at night, against this LSU defense will be the toughest challenge Tua Tagovailoa and the Crimson Tide offense faces this entire season. But how will the rest of the game shakeout. Let’s breakdown this primetime matchup between two heavyweights.
Alabama Passing Offense vs. LSU Passing Defense
Advantage: Alabama
Yes, LSU ranks outside the top 35 in passing yards allowed per game, but they also lead the entire country in interceptions forced. This defensive backfield flies around and makes a lot of plays, but they will have to be disciplined against Alabama. Tua can make every throw on the field. He has elite arm talent and can take the top off the defense with ease. Further, he is masterful at extending the play with his legs. If LSU’s defensive backs aren’t disciplined with where they place their eyes, Tua will make a few big plays with his arm that might determine the outcome of the game. I do expect LSU to get a pick off Tua though.
Jaylen Waddle has made some serious noise as a freshman this year. Image from USA Today.
Alabama Rushing Offense vs. LSU Rushing Defense
Advantage: Draw
Alabama will get their yards, but LSU will not break or wear down. This is stout LSU front seven, even without Devin White in the first half. Further, safety Grant Delpit (6-3, 205) is a stud in not only pass defense, but in run defense, as well. Alabama’s best hope is that they consistently get five yards per carry, because they will not break a long run against this defense. Alabama already has struggled this season in that regard, and this defense is too fast and physical at safety to give up a 20 yard or longer rush. I think Alabama finishes somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 yards rushing which is enough for Alabama to maintain balance, but not enough for LSU to feel like they lost in this area of the game.
Damien Harris is one of the featured backs at Alabama. Image from Getty Images.
LSU Passing Offense v. Alabama Passing Defense
Advantage: LSU
This is going to sound weird, but even though LSU’s passing offense won’t put up a lot of yards, I think they make a few plays that give them advantage. They have very talented receivers, and while Alabama’s defensive backs are very opportunistic (much like LSU’s), I think for the first time since Zach Mettenberger, LSU has a quarterback that won’t try and be the hero, and in doing so, might just end up being the hero. You saw it against Auburn. Burrow didn’t throw for hundreds of yards. He just didn’t do anything stupid and when his number was called, he threw the ball with conviction and without fear. He does that against Bama and LSU passing offense leaves the field with a small victory, even if the statistics don’t back it up.
Joe Burrow might not need to be a hero. Image from CBS Sports.
LSU Rushing Offense vs. Alabama Rushing Defense
Advantage: Alabama
This is the difference for me. It’s not going to be Tua or Burrow or Delpit or Najee Harris or Damien Harris or Jalen Hurts or Devin White. It’s going to be the LSU offensive line vs. the Alabama defensive line. That’s what determines who wins this game. If LSU can’t establish the run, Burrow will be forced to play like superman, which will negate LSU’s advantage of finally having a solid quarterback playing for the Tigers in this rivalry game – something that hasn’t happened in half a decade. Alabama is one of the better rushing defenses in the SEC. If LSU can find a way to rush for 165-170 yards, they have a shot to win this game. That means they are opening up the passing game and chewing up clock, keeping Tua off the field. If LSU can’t establish the run, extend drives, and give their defense a break, Alabama wins this by a couple of scores.
LSU needs to establish the run against Alabama for any chance of success. Image from Sporting News.
Special Teams
Advantage: LSU
In this game, I feel like you always have to side with LSU. Alabama’s kicking game isn’t as horrific as it usually is, in fact, they have played well up until this point, but LSU’s Cole Tracy is one of the best in the country. If it comes down to the kicking game, LSU has the advantage. We don’t know much about Alabama’s punting team, because they haven’t had to use it, but LSU has a stud at punter, as well.
Cole Tracy is clutch. Image from Sports Illustrated.
