Arkansas Spiked the Kool-Aid

Right now in college football, there is no bigger love fest for a school than the University of Arkansas. And why not? After three years of mediocrity and irrelevancy, the once proud Razorback fans have reason to beat their chests a little:

• They shut out LSU and Ole Miss last season.
• They romped their oldest and most hated rival, Texas, 31-7 in the Texas Bowl,
• They have an offense that Arkansas natives can identify with: rugged, tough, and traditional.

And it is not just Arkansas fans who have made their feelings known (and trust me, turn on Paul Finebaum and you are bound to hear an Arkansas fan screaming about how they are back to winning championships). No, in fact, one of the nations most recognizable college football analysts is sipping on the cardinal and white colored Kool-Aid. Kirk Herbstreit, ESPN College GameDay analyst, tweeted that he was “leaning” towards picking the Razorbacks in the SEC West. Everybody and their grandmother are picking the Hogs to win the West.

In the famous words of Herbstreit’s GameDay partner, Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!” Let’s all take a deep breath and think about the SEC West in a calm and reasonable fashion. I agree that Arkansas’ offense is built to win games. They have an offensive line that returns four starters and that outweighs every single NFL offensive line. Last year’s starting quarterback, Brandon Allen, is back, along with two running backs (Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams) who both gained over 1,000 yards rushing. But we aren’t talking about winning games, we are talking about winning championships, and we all know how the saying goes: “Defense wins Championships.”

Here are the issues facing the Arkansas defense:

• The defensive front 7 lost three of their best players – DE Trey Flowers, DT Darius Philon, and LB Martrell Spaight.
• The secondary lost its anchor in Alan Turner
• Most importantly, Arkansas is not exactly replacing its departing defensive players with recruiting classes that rival those of Alabama and LSU.

The good news is that it looks like the defense has enough returning starters and talent to hold its own until the offense can get back on the field. But for a team to win a championship, even if it is just a divisional title, requires a defense good enough to win games by itself. I do not see an A’Shawn Robinson on the defensive line, I do not see a Kris Frost at linebacker, and I do not see a Cam Sutton in the secondary. And that is a problem.

And it isn’t terrible that Arkansas, in year three of Brett Bielema’s tenure, isn’t built to win the SEC West. Look at Ole Miss last season. They had one of the best defenses in all of college football and had a string of better recruiting classes than Arkansas, and they only won 9 games. Ole Miss made great strides, but it is tough to build a championship team in the SEC West in only three years. Three things need to be accomplished before Arkansas is back to becoming an SEC and national power. First, the passing game must improve. Allen threw just five interceptions last year, but he needs to throw for 2,600-2,700 yards and 24-26 touchdowns to bring enough balance to this already dangerous offense. Second, they must find an answer on the defensive line. The answer could come in a BIG way with the 325-pound Bijhon Jackson. Jackson, along with Taiwan Johnson, could make Arkansas fans breathe easy. In fact, if they live up to their potential, that defensive line tandem could rival Philon and Flowers. The final issue is big – Arkansas has not won an SEC road game since they beat an historically pathetic Auburn team in 2012. It is now 2015, and that game is a distant and irrelevant memory. In the words of Rod Tidwell in the movie Jerry Maguire, “Show me the money!” Arkansas, you have to show me the money before I join Herbstreit. If Arkansas is going to win the SEC West, they have to win on the road. The conference road schedule is not friendly either, with trips to Knoxville, Tuscaloosa, Oxford, and Baton Rouge.

Arkansas is definitely moving in the right direction, but an SEC West title may be out of the picture for this upcoming season, and some of the preseason predictions may be a couple of years too early.