5 Things You Need to Know in November

Heading into November, this has been one heck of a season. Only in the SEC can a team like Florida beat LSU, then get beat by Georgia. The same Georgia team that lost to LSU. Then you’ve got Mississippi State throwing a wrench in the West. Unlike the ACC, where teams are as equally bad throughout the conference, the SEC has teams that are equally as good. Sure, you have Alabama as the King of the Conference, but the rest of the teams are legit too.

In this post, Chris and Brendan fill you in on five storylines you need to know if you’re wanting to speak intelligently about SEC football in the month of November. Let us know what you think!

1. Who wins the East?

Brendan: Georgia has to win the East now. After getting their tail whipped by LSU (36-16) they turn around and beat Florida – a team who is logically better than LSU – by almost the same score (36-17). Looking at the rest of their schedule, Georgia has the best shot in the division to win the East. Kentucky seemed to be a viable contender back in September, but after squeaking out back-to-back wins against Vanderbilt (14-7) and Missouri (15-14), I have no faith in their ability to beat Georgia. The Dawgs should spank Auburn, have their backups in after the first quarter versus UMass, and enjoy a nice treat to end the season in the cupcake that is Georgia Tech.

Chris: Easiest question on this post. The Dawgs are gonna smack Kentucky back to reality. These past few weeks for the Wildcats have been pretty alarming. Since the Mississippi State game, Kentucky has been shutout in the second half by South Carolina, lost at A&M, barely beaten Vanderbilt, controversially escaped Columbia, Missouri with a win against Missouri. That doesn’t bode well for when the Dawgs come to town. Georgia’s offense already showed they have the talent needed to score against a fast defense (scoring 36 points on Florida), and the Dawgs defense will be ready for the challenge against Benny Snell and Co. I have been pretty impressed by the Wildcats, but the Dawgs will be too much.

Elijah Holyfield has truly stepped up at RB since Michel and Chubb’s graduation. Image from USA Today.

2. Best 2018 SEC Coaching Hire?

Chris: People may be surprised when I don’t say Dan Mullen at Florida seeing as I have been called a Gator fan for how much hype (rightfully so) I heaped on this team, especially its defense. But I’m going to go with Jeremy Pruitt at Tennessee. Pruitt is the right man for this job. And no, I didn’t originally think that. I fully admit that. Why the change in opinion?

Back in 2016, before Tennessee’s collapse under Butch Jones in 2017, I wrote for my college paper, “I wonder if the stage is too big. [Jones] used to win MAC and Big East Championships. Now, he leads one of the proudest programs in all of college football. That’s a big difference. Even more challenging, he has been charged to return the Tennessee Volunteers to their former glories. Is a man from Michigan really the man for the job?” Well, when you hear Jeremy Pruitt there is no mistaking it. He is from SEC country. Pruitt is recruiting, coaching, and most importantly, installing a culture that makes me think Tennessee is on the right path. Tennessee needs a coach and culture that has the same mindset as its fans – tough, proud, rugged. The state of Tennessee doesn’t have the recruits in its own backyard that Florida, Alabama, LSU, or Georgia has. They have to build this thing from the ground up, and that takes discipline and stubbornness. Pruitt has that.

Jeremy Pruitt is a man the people of Tennessee can relate to. Image from Times Free Press.

Brendan: Dan Mullen, even though Florida fans are whining because he isn’t getting every single 5 Star in the state of Florida. Sure, he’s not pulling a Howard Schnellenberger and establishing “The State of the Panhandle,” but that’s okay. Because Mullen is a fantastic player’s coach. He can develop the talent to where a 3 Star recruit is outperforming a 5 star recruit at a different school. Dan Mullen looks for guys who are willing to be coached. Finally, he’s still doing a pretty dang good job in recruiting.

3. Biggest Disappointment?

Brendan: Drew Lock – If you have low expectations, it is easier not to get disappointed. But it seems like my expectations weren’t low enough for this program. Many were assuming that Drew Lock would be the “Messiah of Missouri” this season. Instead, he produces nothing the moment he faces a semi-competent defense. The most frustrating thing for defenses is when they hold their opponent to 15 points, and they still lose.

Drew Lock struggles against good defenses. Image from USA Today.

Lock’s average QB Rating when facing non-conference teams is 92.52, which is fantastic. However, his average QB Rating against SEC opponents is 43.63. Although the SEC opponents are superior to the outside ones, there is no excuse for that big of a difference in Ratings, especially for a potential NFL quarterback. Two of the greatest components in a veteran senior QB are supposed to be composure and consistency, no matter who he is facing. Lock has shown to have neither of these.

Chris: Mississippi State – This offense has been a huge disappointment for me. With Fitzgerald returning, Aeris Williams returning, Stephon Guidry finally making it to campus at wide receiver, and an offensive line that I thought would bulldog its way through the SEC, I was expecting a team that would put up enough points to compliment their impressive defense and win nine or ten games. Neither the passing offense nor the scoring offense statistical marks impress me, and with Alabama still on the schedule, Mississippi State’s probably going to finish 4-4 in conference. Auburn’s offense and South Carolina’s mental errors might be runner-ups for me.

MSU’s defense is not even with their offense. Image from AL.com.

4. Biggest Surprise?

Brendan: Kentucky’s Defense – While their offense is pretty much exactly where I expected going into the season I did not see this defense being so legit. Last year, Kentucky’s defense was a roller coaster. Sometimes they looked great, and other times they seemed to lay down and let offenses walk all over them. This year has been nothing but impressive. Sure, they’ve had some close games, but that is because the offense struggles to produce and the defense keeps them in games. They’re not the fastest or strongest defense in the SEC. But these guys rely on three things – their ability to read plays quickly, flying to the ball, and assignment discipline. Basically, everything that hard work and determination can get you. This defense proves that when a group of people collectively buy into something and outwork everyone else, good things happen.

Derrick Baity has been a huge part of this Kentucky defense. Image from 247Sports.

Chris: I echo Brendan’s sentiments that this Kentucky defense has absolutely shocked me. We all knew the back end of their defense was talented and experienced, but this defensive line has been up to the challenge. For the sake of not being repetitive I will go with LSU. Don’t get me wrong, I knew this was a talented team with a fast defense and rushing attack that wouldn’t take a step back. But between not knowing how good Joe Burrow would play, and an impossible schedule, if you told me in August that this team would debut in the first College Football Playoff rankings as the third best team in the country, I would have slapped Brendan. Obviously, this weekend is a huge battle for the Bayou Bengals, but even if they fall short of winning the SEC West team, this has been a great season for Ed Orgeron, for recruiting, and for reminding people that LSU isn’t going anywhere.

5. If Notre Dame Makes the Playoff, which conferences are left out?

Brendan: Big 10.

After their loss to Purdue, the Ohio State Buckeyes dropped out of the Top 4 teams and currently sit at 10. Michigan is knocking on the door of the college football playoff at number 5. However, they still have to face 14 Penn State (6-2), then two jokes of football teams, Rutgers (1-7) and Indiana (4-5), and finish off their season at 10 Ohio State (7-1). That is tough. I don’t see Michigan winning out. I hope the Playoff Committee doesn’t allow the Buckeyes into the Top 4 even if they finish the season with one loss.

Michigan still has a tough schedule ahead of them. Image from Michigan Athletics.

I believe all three teams behind Michigan have a better chance of making the Playoff than anyone in the Big 10:

7 Oklahoma – Assuming the Sooners have fixed all of their mid-season issues they should take care of business against everyone, which includes their toughest opponent left on the schedule, 13 West Virginia.

8 Washington State – Nothing would please me more than if the scrappy Cougars snuck into the playoff. The rest of their season is as smooth as a baby’s bottom. You best believe Mike Leach and senior quarterback, Gardner Minshew, will find a way to win…because winners win.

Mike Leach and Co. are making a push for the fourth spot. Image from Associated Press.

6 Georgia – Yes, Georgia will likely face Alabama in the SEC Championship and suffer their second loss. Yet they would face the toughest team in the nation in an extra game. Meanwhile, whoever wins the Big 10 East will face an inferior opponent from the West. In other words, even if Georgia takes a second loss to Alabama, they still deserve to make the playoff over a one-loss Big 10 team.

Chris: This depends on two things for me. First, who wins the Big Ten? If it is a one-loss Michigan, they are getting in – sorry, Brendan. But if it is a one-loss Ohio State, or a two-loss Michigan or a Big Ten West team, then the Big Ten should not make it. So, if Michigan wins out, the Big Ten makes it. If that’s the case, I think Clemson makes it unless some unforeseen upset happens. So now we have the Big Ten and the ACC. The SEC will have either Alabama, LSU, or Georgia. That leaves out the PAC-12 and the Big 12. If Alabama loses, I think a one-loss LSU or one-loss Georgia that wins the SEC gets in over a one-loss Oklahoma that wins the Big 12 or a one-loss Washington State that wins the PAC-12.

Let’s say Michigan loses another game, and the Big Ten Champion either has two losses or it’s one-loss Ohio State. If that’s the case, the three spots of Notre Dame, SEC Champion, and ACC Champion (Clemson), will be locked in, but the fourth will be up for grabs. But if the SEC Champion is a one-loss Georgia or one-loss LSU, and Alabama’s only loss is to LSU, then I think Bama gets in over the Big 12 or PAC-12. If Alabama wins the SEC, that means they are undefeated, and LSU and the Eastern Division Champ have two losses. If that’s the case, then I like Oklahoma to make it, as long as they only have one loss and have won the 2018 Big 12 Title. That being said, there is still a full month of football, and someone is losing when they shouldn’t.

Oklahoma could very well make it into the Top 4. Image from Getty Images.