Front Porch Football2021 National Championship Preview – Alabama vs Ohio State
by Chris Paschal
Quote of the Day: “There’s a time to play, and there’s a time to win. What do you do in winning time?” – Ahmad Rashad
Introduction
Ohio State and Alabama have met only four times previously. Three times the contest went to the Tide, but the most recent encounter ended in a Buckeye victory as Ohio State marched on to the 2014 National Title. When Alabama and Ohio State take the field this evening, outsiders will want to project different causes on behalf of the two combatants. Conference supremacy, regional rivalries, differing cultures, and so much more, but at the end of the day, these two teams are much more similar than they are different. Today, I’m going to highlight these similarities while also comparing the few differences so you feel prepared to watch this National Championship.
Position Breakdowns
Offensive Line
Alabama – Arkansas Head Coach Sam Pittman said it best when he opined that Alabama’s offensive line should collectively win the Heisman Trophy. This is Alabama’s best offensive line since 2012. It starts at tackle with Outland Trophy winner Alex Leatherwood. He’s a first round draft pick in a college uniform. He’s strong, powerful, and extremely athletic. At the other tackle position, Alabama has Evan Neal (6-7, 360). While younger and a little more raw than Leatherwood, Neal is also a future NFL starter. With Neal and Leatherwood, no team in the country has really been able to figure out Alabama’s stretch run scheme. Not only can both of these tackles seal off the edge, they also can run and make blocks in space.
While the Tide offensive line is a great run blocking unit, they are even better at pass protection, especially in the interior of the offensive line. While some teams hide their weaker pass blocker inside, Alabama has one of the most talented and athletic guards in the country in Deonte Brown. While the wide receivers, running backs, and quarterbacks have received so much love this season (and rightfully so), this offensive line is Saban’s best unit when clicking on all cylinders.
Ohio State – This Buckeye offensive line dominated the Sugar Bowl. Let me put that another way. The starting five for Ohio State punished Clemson’s vaunted defensive line. Clemson’s defensive line is star studded, loaded with elite talent, and a group that most Tiger fans are first to point to when talking about Clemson’s successes. And rightfully so. But Clemson was abused by Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. It starts in the center with Josh Myers (6-5, 310). He’s not only the leader and communicator of this group, but also an elite blocker. Crimson Tide fans — this is Ohio State’s version of Barrett Jones. Myers is both smart and strong.
At tackle, Ohio State has two of the best in the country in Thayer Munford (All-Big Ten) and Nicholas Petit-Frere (former 5 star recruit). SEC fans know all too well that for an offensive line to be successful it has to have elite athletes at the tackle position. Ohio State has elite athletes at the tackle position. But probably the best offensive lineman in this unit is Wyatt Davis (All-American). Davis is one of the best interior offensive linemen in the country. No matter which stud Clemson threw at him, Davis either stymied that Tiger in pass protection or moved him off the ball in run blocking. This Ohio State group is elite and reminds me of another offensive line that could take over games: the aforementioned 2012 Alabama.
Advantage – Ohio State. Alabama won the Joe Moore Award this season signifying this Crimson Tide starting five as the best offensive line in college football. And while the country may see that and move on, this Ohio State offensive line is just as elite. Yes, Notre Dame has a great run defense, but I saw an Alabama offensive line struggle to stay on blocks and win consistently at the line of scrimmage against the Irish. Throw in the fact that Alabama lost Rimington Award winner Landon Dickerson at center and the advantage, albeit slight, goes to the Buckeyes.
Defensive Line
Alabama – It starts and ends with Christian Barmore. The sophomore interior defensive lineman is one of the best pass rushing defenders in the country. And that’s huge. With an injured quarterback in Ohio State’s Justin Fields, feeling pressure up the middle is deadly. Barmore leads an athletic and resurgent Crimson Tide defense which has generated a strong pass rush and run defense. Couple that with DJ Dale and a host of other elite players and this Crimson Tide defensive line is starting to become sneaky good.
Ohio State – This Ohio State run defense is stingy, and it all starts on the line of scrimmage for the Buckeyes. In the Sugar Bowl against Clemson, the Tigers rushing attack disappeared, which to those of us who follow Clemson relatively close was unsurprising. Ettiene struggled in big moments this year, and Clemson failed to establish the run against strong rush defenses like Ohio State. The Buckeyes held Clemson to a whopping 44 yards rushing in the Sugar Bowl. That being said, Ohio State does not have the pass rushers of previous years on this unit. Getting after the passer has become more of a group and team effort than in the past. Ohio State is going to have to get creative tonight getting after Mac Jones or it might not go as well as it did in New Orleans.
Advantage – Alabama. Ohio State may have a better track record this season, but I like the Crimson Tide and the momentum they have heading into this game.
Running Backs
Alabama – Ettiene is a really good back. But he is nowhere close to the kind of player Najee Harris (6-2, 230) is. The Crimson Tide back may be the swiss army knife that makes the offense go for Alabama. This year, Harris has 229 carries, 1,387 yards, 24 touchdowns, 36 catches, 346 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. And that is with a plethora of other options on this Alabama offense. Spelling Harris is Robinson, Jr. who is averaging over five yards per carry, but at the end of the day, this position group is all about Najee. His stats and highlights looked better than the actual day he had on the ground against Notre Dame. Alabama is going to need him to step up tonight to keep this Alabama offense balanced.
Ohio State – Trey Sermon may not be the best running back in the country, but he has all the characteristics of being the best back in the country. I hate to keep using Clemson as a measuring stick, but as elite as Clemson has been in the past five years, the Tigers are a great measuring stick. That being said, in a game where Clemson struggled to run the football and Ettiene was bottled up, Trey Sermon absolutely exploded on a stronger defensive line.
Sermon had 193 rushing yards on 31 carries, and averaged over six yards per carry. Those numbers are consistent for a running back (and rushing attack) that has dominated opponents during big games as of late. With Fields potentially being limited in mobility tonight, Sermon is going to have an even bigger spotlight on him and must perform at just as high of a level. Look out for Master Teague, as well.
Advantage – Ohio State. Najee Harris won the Doak Walker Award and justifiably so. But I’m going with the smoking hot hand in Trey Sermon. Could be a push, but I’ll give a slight advantage to Ohio State.
Linebackers
Alabama – Talent has not matched production at this position. Dylan Moses, Jaylen Moody, Chris Braswell, Christian Harris, Shane Lee, Will Anderson, Jr., Jarez Parks, and more are all talented. Some have fallen to injury and others have just not performed, but somebody, preferably the senior Dylan Moses, has to step up for a unit that is capable but currently underwhelming.
Ohio State – Linebackers Tuf Borland, Pete Werner, and Baron Browning are all salty, veteran, tough-nosed linebackers that may not get the accolades that Dylan Moses or other SEC linebackers get, but they are strong nevertheless. While a smaller sample size, the Buckeye linebackers have been consistent this year and will be needed to have a big game not only in rush defense but in pass defense, as well.
Advantage – Ohio State. Ohio State is more consistent at linebacker. I’ll take consistency over talent in a big game like this. If Alabama linebackers show up locked and loaded, they may have more of an impact, but I like the steady hands in moments like this.
Wide Receivers
Alabama – The Heisman Trophy Winner is in this receiving corps and is littered with amazing talent. On top of that, Alabama may be adding Jaylen Waddle back to the lineup as he fights to get back from his lower leg injury that has sidelined him since the Tennessee game over two months ago. This unit may be the best wide receiver unit in the country.
Ohio State – Watching that Sugar Bowl against Clemson and Ohio State flexed how strong of a wide receiving corps they truly have. Ohio State receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are two of the best in the country, with other playmakers playing besides them. While asking for another performance like they had against Clemson may be too much to ask for, Ohio State is going to need strong games out of this talented group.
Advantage – Alabama. Ohio State very well could have one of the top five best wide receiving groups in the country, but Alabama’s is the nation’s best.
Secondary
Alabama – This Crimson Tide secondary feasts on mediocre passing attacks. They can get aggressive at times, force interceptions, step up in run defense, and make great open field tackles. But it also has been exposed at times this season, especially against strong offensive attacks like Florida’s. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II was named First Team All-American, but he has a tall task ahead of him. Bama will need Surtain, Josh Jobe, Jordan Battle and others to play like they did against Auburn and Notre Dame and not like they did against Ole Miss and Florida.
Ohio State – Shaun Wade was the other cornerback named First Team All-American. And Ohio State’s pass defense is much like Alabama’s: talented and aggressive, but also inconsistent. Ohio State’s defense forced Clemson to be one-dimensional in the Sugar Bowl, but that one dimension for Clemson passed for 400 yards.
Advantage – Alabama. This is a little bit of a coin toss, but I’ll take a battle tested SEC secondary over an Ohio State secondary I have questions over.
Quarterback
Alabama – Mac Jones, the Heisman Finalist. He was handed the keys to the lamborghini and smashed his foot on the accelerator. And things went better than most in the national media expected. Jones makes very few mistakes while also spinning the ball all over the field. This isn’t your late-2000s Alabama offense, or your 2015 Jacob Coker offense. This is a high-powered passing attack that is blessed not only with a strong, vertical passing game, but also intermediate passing concepts that allow their elite athletes to make plays in space.
Ohio State – Clemson fans themself will admit the Tigers had a troublesome secondary this season. But after the performance Justin Fields had in the Big Ten Championship, I don’t think anyone was expecting the type of game he had in the Sugar Bowl. A 99.0 QBR, a 385-yard performance, some darts over the middle where the football must have had eyes to fit into a spot that tight, and then beautiful deep balls which stretched the field. Trevor Lawrence is the top draft pick, but I think Justin Fields showed why he will make some NFL team a lot better in 2021.
Advantage – Push. Both are elite quarterbacks that know how to get the ball into their playmakers hands and that make few mistakes.
Overall Advantages
Alabama Advantages: Defensive Line, Wide Receiver, Secondary
Ohio State Advantages: Offensive Line, Linebacker, Running Back
Push: Quarterback
Key Matchup
The key matchup will be the line of scrimmage. These are elite offensive lines and talented defensive lines. In last year’s national championship, LSU’s defense was considered the weakest unit. But in big-time games like that, LSU defenses always play fast and free. It ended up being the difference in the game. Whichever defensive line can find a way to not only generate pressure in the passing game, but also contain these talented running backs, wins the game. I said at the beginning of the season that I thought Alabama’s toughest game of the season would be Florida. I stand by those words, but think Ohio State gives them a helluva shot. Alabama’s defense makes one or two dynamic plays that wins them the game.
Impact Player: Alabama DB Jordan Battle. What do you do during winning time? That’s what makes you a legend. What you do during “normal time” makes up your highlight tapes and your stats. What you do during winning time is how you’re remembered. Battle is a South Florida kid who has played well this season. But he will step it up this evening. Oh yeah, and he flipped from Ohio State to Alabama during his college recruitment. He has one interception on the season. He gets another one in the second half tonight.
Final Score: Alabama 37 Ohio State 30
Final Thoughts & Predictions from FPF
Chris: Let me just take this space to apologize to the subscribers. I picked Clemson to wallop Ohio State. My research on Ohio State was limited to what I had read and the Big Ten Championship I watched. That wasn’t good enough. Ohio State is talented enough to beat Alabama and might win three or even four in a best of five series. But Alabama still has the king at head coach and the Tide will win a classic. Look out for these talented Alabama defenders to finally show up and prove themselves this evening.
Ben: Ohio State came out in the semi final and proved that no matter how many games they had played, they were on of the top 2 teams in the country, the problem is the gap between 1 and 2 is too much for Ohio State to overcome, Alabama had the three headed offensive attack made up of Harris, Smith, and Jones that test Ohio State more than Clemson could with Etienne, Powell, and Lawrence.
I expect Ohio State to score a few points, but I have Alabama pulling away in the late 3rd quarter and controlling the clock. I think that Fields plays well early, but a few hits will bring back the bruises he suffered in the semi final and will limit his rushing attack allowing Alabama to lock in on him in the pocket. Nick Saban gets another title, and retires, riding off into the sunset to cap off his sixties, bringing on the debate of who will Alabama hire.
Alabama 49 Ohio State 41
Brendan: Nick Saban gets another title, but he’s not going anywhere. This will start out with a couple long drives as both heavy weights feel each other out. But soon the blows will begin to deliver. Touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. These two teams are fast. They’re so fast they make fast teams look, well, not fast. Alabama is just a little faster.
Alabama 56 Ohio State 49
John Covington Lamm: I expect this game to be a high scoring contest. Both offenses have been electric this season, and at their very best, have been tough to stop. Justin Fields played as well as humanly possible in the Semi-final matchup against Clemson, and while he is battling an injury, I expect him to continue his success against the Tide defense. I believe this Tide team could easily score 50 points. The key in this game is going to be turnovers. Justin Fields did have an interception against Clemson and had multi games this year with 2 or more. If Ohio State is going to win this game, he cannot have any turnovers. I expect this to be exciting and fun down to the very end, but I have Alabama getting the win.
Alabama 49 Ohio State 41
Max: This is a really intriguing matchup. If someone would have told me Bama was going to play Ohio State I would have told them that Bama would win in a blowout. However, after the way Ohio State played against Clemson, I believe this is going to be a battle. Alabama has got to find a way to make things difficult for Justin Fields. If he has time in the pocket or can scramble and get yards when things break down, Alabama could be in for a fight. Justin Fields is the X Factor in this game. If he is successful, Ohio State can hang and possibly upset Alabama. I’m still feeling like Alabama will win this game, but I expect this one to be a four-quarter battle to determine the National Champion.
