2019: Georgia’s Most Critical Year Since 2004

by Chris Paschal

Georgia has flexed its muscle in the SEC East as of late. Georgia has not lost to a team in the East since 2016 – undefeated in 2017 and 2018. And nobody has really threatened Georgia. In fact, only two SEC East teams were able to keep it within two touchdowns (South Carolina in 2017 and Missouri in 2018). And while the Dawgs have been dominating on the gridiron, they have also been whipping the competition in recruiting. Georgia has pulled in three straight top five recruiting classes.

It would be a pretty safe bet to assume Georgia is about to go on a run that would resemble that of their brother to the West, the Alabama Crimson Tide. But if history is any indication, Georgia’s future domination of the SEC is not a foregone conclusion.

Kirby Smart vs. Mark Richt

A lot has been made about how Mark Richt’s first three years are pretty much identical to Kirby Smart’s first three years. Both won 32 games. Both won the SEC East twice. Both won the SEC once. But many analysts leave the comparison there. That’s not what we are all about. Sure, I may cut corners in things that actually matter, but this deserves our attention. Let’s look at Mark Richt’s first three years at Georgia first.

Richt’s Tenure

In 2001, Mark Richt became the head coach of Georgia and took over a strong Bulldog roster. Georgia had gone 10-2 in 1997, 9-3 in ’98, and 8-4 in both ’99 and 2000. Quarterback David Greene and defensive juggernaut, David Pollack, were both recruited by the former staff. (Greene even signed and enrolled while the former staff was still in Athens.) There was talent on this roster when Richt took over. But while there was talent, Richt had to correct a troubling trend – losing to rivals. From 1997-2000, even with a record of 35-13, the Dawgs were 1-3 against Auburn, Georgia Tech, Florida, and Tennessee, respectively.

During this period in time, Florida was in the middle of their run of terrorizing the East and dominating the West. Tennessee was doing their best to compete with the Gators, successfully doing so in 1998, the same year they won a National Title. Georgia Tech was competing at a high level, winning the ACC in 1998. Even Auburn, in the middle of a transition between Terry Bowden and Tommy Tuberville, was able to beat up the Dawgs, including an upset of Georgia in 1999.

One of Richt’s most important tasks when he arrived in Athens was to beat the rivals. In his first three seasons, he did a decent job at doing that. Georgia went a perfect 3-0 against Georgia Tech and Tennessee. Beating Georgia Tech was one thing, but to win three straight against the Vols when they were consistently ranked in the top 15 was program defining. Georgia would also go 2-1 against Auburn.

But while the Dawgs corrected some of the transgressions of season’s past, Georgia still couldn’t figure things out against Florida. In Richt’s first three seasons, he lost every game against the Gators. To add insult to injury, Georgia was losing to Florida when the Gators were at their worst in a long time. From 2002-2004, the Gators were led by Ron Zook, one of the best recruiters in SEC history, but for whatever reason, a habitual underachiever. Except against Georgia.

That being said, Georgia was still the team to beat in the East from 2001-2003, and heading into the 2004 season, the Dawgs were poised to make a run at another SEC Title and possibly a National Title. But they slipped up. Georgia would finally get the Florida monkey off their back, beating the Gators by a touchdown, but would drop to Tennessee and Auburn.

The following season, Georgia would win the SEC, yet finish the season with three losses. That was the last SEC Title Richt would win at Georgia. He would continue to recruit well, win exciting games, and have teams that were poised to win another SEC Title. But he was unable to break through.

Mark Richt’s success, and Les Miles’s success, and Phil Fulmer’s success, and even Urban Meyer’s success makes me appreciate Nick Saban’s success even more. The difference between Richt and Saban was that Richt did really well in his first three seasons, went to sleep happy at night, and never truly dominated the East. Saban did really well in his first three seasons, went to sleep pissed off that he wasn’t undefeated, and went on to put a stranglehold on the rest of the SEC.

Smart’s Time

When looking at Kirby’s first three seasons at Georgia, two things are obvious. First, the Dawgs are extremely talented. The defenses Kirby has had in Athens have been Alabama-like. The second obvious point, however, was that Georgia was feasting on a weak and transitioning SEC East. Kirby stepped into a job that fired a coach for winning only nine games the year before. This was a roster that was littered with five star talent.

The fact that Georgia was already talented when Kirby started in Athens was exasperated by the fact that Florida collapsed in 2017, South Carolina had to almost entirely rebuild its program in 2016, Tennessee was still (and in some ways, still is) reeling from firing Fulmer in 2008, and that Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri, even at their best, don’t hold a candle to Georgia.

Who were Georgia’s losses to in 2017 and 2018? Auburn, Alabama, LSU, and Texas. Basically, the SEC West (and then the egg of the century in the Sugar Bowl against the Longhorns). The rest of the East was never a serious threat to Georgia. The question is whether or not Kirby has put a Saban-like stranglehold on the East?

The Future

The future for the East looks much brighter than its recent past. Florida finished the 2018 season with ten wins. That was year one for Dan Mullen. Kirby’s first season in Athens finished with eight wins. Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa finished with seven. Not only that, but the Gators’ hauled in a top ten recruiting class, according to 247 Sports. The score might not have shown it, but Florida had the same athletes that Georgia did last season. They just didn’t have the quarterback play needed to win the game.

South Carolina and Tennessee may not have competed on the field with the Dawgs in 2018, but they definitely did on the recruiting trail. South Carolina should have its best defense since Muschamp arrived in Columbia, with a defensive line that is SEC talented and SEC deep. Tennessee is not far behind, pulling in top-level talent in the trenches, and developing an identity that Georgia fans should recognize and respect, smashmouth football.

2019 is going to be very telling. Georgia has recruited enough top running backs, offensive linemen, and defensive specimen to beat up teams that do not stack up physically. But what about the teams that are closer to Georgia in terms of roster talent? Don’t get me wrong, Georgia is the most talented team in the East. In fact, that is kind of the basis for my point.

It’s not really a question of if they win this season, but how they win? Is it going to be another 41-17 beatdown of the Gamecocks, or has the talent gap closed to a 7-10 point victory? Does Florida hang around for just three quarters like they did in 2018, or do the Gators make this a 60 minute affair? Does Jeremy Pruitt have Tennessee ready to punch back in Knoxville, or will the Dawgs have the game over by half-time? (Yes, I know Kentucky was a 10 win team last year, but the Wildcats are basically starting over in 2019.)

The Time is Now for Georgia

These are the questions that determine if Kirby has Georgia on the same trajectory as Saban or the same trajectory as Richt. Muschamp can look at recruits after a hard fought, 10 point loss to Georgia and say, “hey, we are a player or two away from beating these guys.” He can’t do that if Georgia rips South Carolina a brand new behind. This season really comes down to perception. Richt wasn’t able to beat his chest in 2004 and claim that Georgia was head and shoulders above the rest of the SEC East, and because of that, by 2006 the Gators had taken over.

Give Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee a window, and the East may be wide open by 2020. Shut that window, don’t give fans, players, coaches, and most importantly, recruits a reason to believe, and we may see SEC divisional domination only before seen by Saban at Alabama.