by Christopher Paschal

7^th–SEC East

Nashville, TN | Vanderbilt Stadium (40,550) | 2017 Record: 5-7 (1-7)

The James Franklin teams of 2012 and 2013 feel like the distant past. The three-year span of 2011-2013 might be the greatest run in Vanderbilt football history post-WWII. Think about it. The Commodores beat Tennessee two out of three tries, they won two bowl games, they beat Florida, Georgia, and Auburn in that three year stretch, and they won nine games in back-to-back seasons. Since then, Vanderbilt has been bowl eligible only once, and wins over SEC powers are now unlikely surprises instead of greatly anticipated battles.

Derek Mason leads the Commodores out of the tunnel. Image from USA Today

When Vanderbilt is good it’s never because their roster is superior to their opponents, but instead, it is by out-playing and out-scheming their opponent.  Nowhere is that more apparent than on the defensive side of the ball, especially under defensive minded head coach Derek Mason. In 2015, the only year Vanderbilt has been bowl eligible under Derek Mason, the Commodores ranked 22^nd Nationally in Scoring Defense and 27^th Nationally in Total Defense. Last year, Vanderbilt ranked 88^th in Scoring Defense and 65^th in Total Defense. Even worse, they ranked 101^st in Rushing Defense. If Vanderbilt is to get back to the glory days of 2011-2013, they’re going to have to play better defense.

Offense

Quarterbacks: This might be the one position group on Vanderbilt’s roster that is just as good if not better than most other quarterback rooms in the SEC. That’s because the Commodores have returning starter, Kyle Shurmur (6-4, 230), taking the snaps in Nashville this Fall. Shurmur has a live, strong, NFL-ready cannon for an arm, which was evident throughout the 2017 season. Shurmur finished last season with 26 touchdown passes, a single season Vanderbilt record, and passed for over 2,800 yards. He can make every throw on the football field and has the arm strength needed to keep safeties honest. However, what keeps Shurmur from emerging as an elite quarterback in 2018 is the players around him.

Kyle Shurmur is a solid QB, but will he have any help? Image from USA Today.

It will be tough for Vanderbilt to set up the play-action pass when they aren’t able to effectively run the football. Yes, Ke’Shawn Vaughn was a much needed addition after transferring in from Illinois, but Ralph Webb was exceptional. Vaughn produced solid numbers during his time at Illinois, but won’t rush for over 50 yards in four of Vanderbilt’s first seven games. The wide receiving corps took a hit, as well, with Vanderbilt’s two leading receptionists gone from last year’s team. Shurmur already struggles with making sound decisions at times, and while his gun-slinger mentality may keep them in games against inferior defenses, it will ruin the Commodores against solid defenses. While Shurmur has the size, talent, and competitive streak to play in the NFL, don’t be surprised if his numbers take a dip this season.

Running Back: When you lose one of the greatest running backs to ever put on the Vanderbilt jersey it’s hard to replicate that kind of production. Aforementioned Ke’Shawn Vaughn will try and spearhead a position group that will have to tackle the task before them as a committee. Vaughn has SEC size at 5-10, 215, and runs hard. He is not afraid to lower his shoulder into a defender, but he also has the vision and agility needed to run in the SEC. What is most impressive about Vaughn is his acceleration and first step. Vaughn reaches his top-end speed very quickly, and while he isn’t as fast as some of the elite backs found elsewhere in the SEC, he has enough speed to be dangerous.

Don’t get me wrong, Vaughn was a solid football player at Illinois and looks like a great addition for Vanderbilt, but Ralph Webb finished his career as the sixth all-time leading rusher, one of the best pass catching backs in the SEC these past few years, and oh yeah, only Herschel Walker finished his career with more carries than Webb. Vanderbilt can’t just depend on Vaughn. Both Khari Blasingame (6-1, 235) and Jamauri Wakefield (6-1, 220) are big backs, but both were lightly recruited and utilized sparingly last year. Neither recorded a rushing touchdown in 2017.

Wide Receiver: Not nearly as tall of an order as trying to replace Ralph Webb, but Vanderbilt lost both Trent Sherfield and C.J. Duncan who both combined for over 100 receptions, ten touchdowns, and over 1,200 receiving yards. All is not lost, however, as the Commodores do return Kalija Lipscomb (6-1, 200). Lipscomb was a reliable target last year for Vanderbilt as he led the team in touchdown receptions (8) and finished the season having received for over 40 yards in 10 of Vanderbilt’s 12 games. But besides pass catching tight end Jared Pinkney (3 TDs), Vanderbilt doesn’t have very many options.

Kalija Lipscomb returns as a solid target. Image from SEC Country.

True freshman Camron Johnson might very well be thrown onto the field very early and often this season. Johnson was a top 300 prospect from nearby Brentwood, TN and has the size (6-1, 185) needed to contribute immediately. Besides that, look out for Donaven Tennyson (5-10, 170) who was used as a Percy Harvin/Deebo Samuel do-it-all type weapon in high school. He is fast, shifty, elusive, and can return kicks and be an option as a jet sweep or Wildcat-type running back. He was used sparingly last season, so it is yet to be seen whether or not he has the same type of impact, instincts, and toughness as Percy Harvin or Deebo Samuel.

Offensive Line: This was the worst rush offense in all of the SEC last season and it wasn’t because Ralph Webb wasn’t getting the job done. This offensive line has to play better if Vanderbilt has any shot of winning football games in 2018. Early in the season, this line will be challenged with Notre Dame, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina all featured on this schedule before October 13^th. Yes, it does get easier on the back end of the schedule, but this offensive line has to play better. It returns all five starters from last season, but that doesn’t really matter when the talent isn’t there. This offensive line needs more girth and more players, something they lack compared to other lines in this conference, especially the elite ones. It could be another long, frustrating season for Vanderbilt running backs this Fall.

O-Line needs some work. Image from Vanderbilt Athletics.

Defense

Defensive Line: In the SEC, if you are going to play a 3-4 defense with a one technique (a defensive tackle or nose tackle that lines up shaded over one of the offensive center’s shoulder – basically right in the middle of the defense), you need to be a big, strong, physical man to anchor that position. I grew up watching a lot of Pittsburgh Steelers football*. When I was a kid, the Steelers ran (and still run) a 3-4 defense not identical, but similar to that of Vanderbilt. The idea is having massive, block eating defensive lineman occupy two gaps, while allowing athletic linebackers to make all the tackles. The best defensive lineman at occupying blockers and stuffing gaps was Casey Hampton. Casey Hampton was a few hamburgers shy of 350 pounds. On the official roster he was always listed at around 325, but everyone in Pittsburg knew better. Hampton wasn’t tall (6-1), he wasn’t fast (somehow ran a 5.25 forty yard dash at the combine – still blows my mind), and he didn’t rush the passer (often times he would finish a season with zero sacks), but good gracious could that man anchor a defensive line.

Casey Hampton was a few cheeseburgers short of 350 pounds. Image from the NFL.

I say all of that not to ridicule Vanderbilt for not having an All-Pro defensive tackle on its roster, but to illustrate how ludicrous it is that only one Commodore defensive lineman weighs over 300 pounds. Vanderbilt cannot expect to improve in run defense, no matter how good of a play caller and defensive mind Derek Mason is, if they don’t have a full grown, behemoth of a man at the defensive tackle position. At the two end positions, Vanderbilt will probably look to the two Odeyingbo brothers, both possessing the size needed to play end in the SEC, but don’t expect this defensive line to improve on what was a disastrous year in 2017.

*Of course, I understand that comparing the worst program in SEC football with possibly the greatest franchise in NFL history is a bit ridiculous. But humor me as I use the Steelers as an illustration.

Linebacker: One bright spot and a whole lot of questions marks. Charles Wright returns at linebacker after leading the team with an impressive nine sacks last season, but with the loss of Oren Burks, this linebacking corps needs some new blood to step up. Luckily, where talent may lack, maturity does prosper in that most of the potential candidates (Andrew Rector, Jordan Griffin, Josh Smith) to man some of these spots are seniors. But if I were coaching the defense, I would start true freshman Alston Orji (6-2, 230), a highly ranked, four-star prospect out of Texas. When your other offers were Texas, Texas A&m, Oklahoma, TCU, Michigan, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, UCLA, Notre Dame, and Nebraska, you’re pretty dang good.

Defensive Backs: The starting talent is comparable to most SEC secondaries. The depth is the main concern. At corner, Vanderbilt will trot out a future NFL Draft pick and a possible future NFL Draft Pick. The surefire NFL bound corner is Joejuan Williams (6-3, 210) who is probably the best player on this roster. Williams is big, physical, and can take away an opposing team’s best receiver.

The corner starting opposite of him will probably be Donovan Sheffield (6-0, 195) who in 2015 was considered one of the best corner backs in the country according to 247’s in house rankings. The problem is that Sheffield only has a few tackles to his name. If he can play to his ability, Vanderbilt has a good cornerback tandem. At safety, 2017’s leading tackler returns as LaDarius Wiley and will be joined by sophomores Zaire Jones and Frank Coppet, but if Derek Mason is going to start Alston Orji at linebacker, he might as well throw in four-star safety, Brendon Harris out of Chattanooga. He has good size (6-1, 2015) and should be rewarded for flipping his commitment from in-state rival, the University of Tennessee to the Commodores last recruiting cycle.

Special Teams

 The Commodores signed a lightly recruited kicker out of Miami, Florida and he is expected to start for Vanderbilt this season. Yikes. Further, the punter, Parker Thome, is a grad transfer from Columbia University. First of all, shout out to this dude. He has a degree from Columbia and is now getting a grad degree from Vanderbilt. Second of all, Vanderbilt will probably not improve as one of the nation’s worst teams in any stat relating to field position. But to be honest, no matter how good the punter is if the guys running down the field to cover the punt are slow, former two-star prospects, field position probably will never be a strong suit. I say throw n Donaven Tennyson in at returner. Who knows if he can play slot, Wildcat, running back in the SEC, but I have a feeling he would be a solid returner.

Coaching Staff

Derek Mason is widely considered one of the best defensive minds in the game, but the defensive guru decided to hand play calling over to new defensive coordinator Jason Tarver. Tarver is a former NFL defensive coordinator who looks to give this defense a shot in the arm. Whether he is able to do that remains unknown, but kudos to Derek Mason for realizing something had to be done and to be humble enough to address the issue head on.

Biggest Strength: Defensive Backs – On paper and barring injuries, this has the potential to be a top five defensive backfield in the SEC this season. The problem is that on paper and barring injuries almost never works out. If Sheffield doesn’t pan out at corner, and players start getting injured, things could get ugly. But, if they stay healthy, and Sheffield shows up, and Brendon Harris doesn’t play like a freshman, then Joejuan Williams is good enough to force opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. That’s a lot of ifs, but someone has to win this category.

Biggest Weakness: The Line of Scrimmage – You know Tennessee was really, really, really bad last year when Vanderbilt rushed for close to 250 yards and held the Vols to just under 60, because Vanderbilt shouldn’t do that to anybody. The back end of the schedule, Vanderbilt should look a little bit more comfortable running the ball and stopping the run, but to start this season, Vanderbilt should be manhandled in four of their first seven football games.

Offensive, Defensive, and Freshman Players of the Year

 Offensive: Kyle Shurmur. He may not match his numbers from last year. However, Shurmur can keep Vanderbilt in some games they have no business competing in. Notre Dame is one of those. That is one game that smells like trouble for a good Fighting Irish team. It is in the middle of a boring stretch of games for Notre Dame (Ball State, Vanderbilt, at Wake Forest). And Vanderbilt will be motivated (and possibly undefeated) to prove that they, like Georgia, can go into Notre Dame and play SEC football. Do I think they win? No. But I could see Shurmur tossing a couple of touchdowns in the first half.

Defensive: Joejuan Williams. He literally might be a NFL first round draft pick next Spring. If he plays like he is capable of playing, he might finish the season first team All-SEC. Even if he doesn’t, he will be the best defensive player for Vanderbilt next season.

Freshman: Camron Johnson. Johnson will be thrust into a lot of games and asked to perform. Johnson wins this honor mostly because of how many times Shurmer is going to throw the ball this season. While Orji and Harris might be better players on the defensive side of the ball, I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson isn’t the second most productive receiver on this roster this season.

Schedule Breakdown and Projected Wins and Losses

 Win – Middle Tennessee State

Nevada – Loss

at Notre Dame – Loss

South Carolina – Loss

Win – Tennessee State

at Georgia – Loss

Florida – Loss

at Kentucky – Loss

at Arkansas – Loss

at Missouri – Loss

Ole Miss – Loss

Tennessee – Loss

 Final Record: 2-10 (0-8)

The Final Word

The roster is just not good enough to win games in the SEC. Last year, the SEC East was down, and Vanderbilt still could only muster one win. This year, Tennessee is not losing to Vanderbilt, not with Jeremy Pruitt as their head coach. Pruitt might not be the answer for the Vols in terms of winning SEC Titles. But he is the answer in regard to stopping the bleeding. This defense won’t be able to stop Nevada (and maybe Middle Tennessee State) enough to enter South Bend undefeated. And they aren’t leaving the state of Indiana with a win. I see a potential upset in week four against South Carolina. South Carolina hasn’t lost to Vanderbilt since 2008. This is Vanderbilt’s longest active losing streak (and it’s not even close) in the SEC East. But they will be motivated to show that while the non-conference didn’t go the way they planned, they are ready to compete in the SEC. All in all, it will be another rough year for Vanderbilt.