by Christopher Paschal

6^th – SEC West

Oxford, MS | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (64,000) | 2017 Record: 6-6 (3-5)

It’s Matt Luke’s show now. The reasoning behind changing Matt Luke’s title from “Interim Head Coach” to “Head Coach” is still the subject of speculation from Biloxi to Memphis, but whatever the reason, he returns an impressive passing offense and an underwhelming defense. For Ole Miss to replicate the successes of year one in the post-Hugh Freeze era, the Rebels will have to put up gaudy offensive numbers. If he can post another six-win season, or heck, just look competitive in seven or eight games, he will prove that he is the right man to guide this program though the perils of this scandal.  But if Ole Miss lays an egg, he might have sealed his fate as an interim head coach, not in name, but in spirit.

Image from the Oxford Eagle

Offense 

Quarterbacks: Who would have thought that losing former five-star prospect and SEC superstar Shea Patterson to Michigan would not be a disaster for the Rebels? Patterson was a dynamic, play-making quarterback that signed with Ole Miss and Hugh Freeze out of IMG Academy. But just months after his first collegiate start, Hugh Freeze was out as head coach. That was the beginning of the end for Patterson’s time in Oxford. After starting the first seven games last season (and completing over 165 passes), Patterson’s season ended because of injury., Then his SEC career ended when he transferred to Ann Arbor. Patterson will probably be the starting quarterback for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines, but things look just as good, if not better, in Oxford. That’s because of who stepped in when Patterson went down.

Patterson now at Michigan. Image from MGoBlue.com

Jordan Ta’amu (6-2, 215), a former three-star recruit from Hawaii and JUCO transfer from New Mexico Military Institute, put the team on his back last season as he led the Rebels to victories in three of their final four games and kept things close in the loss to Arkansas. Ta’amu is quick, elusive, and has a pretty dang good arm. He passed for over 1,600 yards in five games and threw for 11 touchdowns. Behind him will be the uber-talented, blue chip signee Matt Coral out of California. Coral (6-2, 200) was considered one of the best five quarterbacks in the nation last year by 247 Sports. He may get a few shots at quarterback this year, even as a true freshman in the SEC West, if Ta’amu doesn’t replicate the throws he made last year.

Ta’amu returns as an elusive QB. Image from USA TODAY Sports

Running Back: Ole Miss might not have rushed the ball very well last year, but they had a thousand yard running back who averaged 6.5 yards per carry. Jordan Wilkins was the Ole Miss rushing offense. And he is now gone. There are no good options to replace Wilkins. I have given up hope on Eric Swinney. For two years now, I have predicted that he would burst onto the scene. He rewarded my confidence by rushing for 195 yards last year. D’Vaughn Pennamon returns as the team’s second leading rusher with 217 yards. The Rebels signed two running backs in this recruiting cycle, both of whom are 5-9, 195 pounds. This will be the SEC’s worst rushing offense and definitely the worst backfield in the SEC.

Swinney returns after a disappointing couple of years. Image from USA Today.

Wide Receiver: The wide receiving corps is a different story. While the running backs at Ole Miss may be the worst in the SEC, the receivers at Ole Miss may be the best. Yes, the Rebels did lose Van Jefferson to Florida, but it’s who they return and who they signed in recruiting that make this group special. It all starts with A.J. Brown (6-1, 225), my pick for the first SEC player to be drafted in next year’s NFL Draft. He terrorized SEC defenses last year with 75 receptions, 1,252 receiving yards, and 11 touchdown catches. He’s a strong, physical freak athlete. Think he’s too short to catch a jump ball? Wrong – he is one of the best at it. Seem too heavy to run like a deer? Also wrong – the man blew by opposing defenders last year.

But it’s not just him. D.K. Metcalf (6-4, 225) returns for his sophomore campaign after catching 39 passes for 646 yards. He also caught seven touchdowns, none bigger than his incredible game-winning snag in the ecorner of the end zone at Kentucky with five seconds left in the game. DaMarkus Lodge (6-2, 200) also returns for his senior season. Lodge finished last year just shy of 700 receiving yards, and he, like Metcalf, pulled in seven touchdown catches in 2017. Sophomore Braylon Sanders and freshmen Miles Battle, DeMarcus Gregory, and Elijah Moore all have the talent needed to contribute at a high level next year.

DaMarkus Lodge returns for his senior season. Image from Ole Miss Rivals.

Offensive Line: The starting five are pretty impressive, it is what’s behind them that is a worrisome. The Rebels, shockingly, have two first-round draft picks on this roster. The first is the aforementioned A.J. Brown. The second is left tackle Greg Little (6-6, 325). Little, like Brown, was an elite, five-star prospect in the 2016 recruiting class. Now a junior, Little must play like an All-American. This run offense needs it. Javon Patterson will start next to Little at left guard. Patterson (6-3, 315) is a local Mississippi product who will head into his senior season with one more chance to impress NFL scouts. With all the hype Little received heading into Ole Miss, Patterson was just as touted, rated the  guard in the 2015 class. At center is another veteran, senior Sean Rawlings (6-5, 295). He is athletic for a center, which makes this offensive line that much more intriguing. Jordan Sims, Alex Givens, and Ben Brown will compete for the other spots, but there isn’t much behind these guys. And Ole Miss only signed one offensive linemen in this year’s recruiting class.

Greg Little has potential to be a first round draft pick. Image from Ole Miss Athletics.

Defense

Defensive Line: Ole Miss is right there with Kentucky and Vanderbilt in terms of horrific defensive lines. Benito Jones was a five-star guy who stayed in Mississippi for college over attending Alabama. He has the potential to be an elite, nose guard-like player, but he has to stay healthy, something that he was unable to do last year. Josiah Coatney is a solid defensive tackle, but I equate him to somebody like Keir Thomas (a good, productive defensive lineman for South Carolina, but not a stud up front). That’s basically it for Ole Miss. A solid player in Coatney and a potential monster in Jones who was injured for parts of last season. Victor Evans, Qaadir Sheppard and Ryan Anderson will all try to replicate the success of productive, if undersized, Marquis Haynes who is now in the NFL.

Benito Jones needs to stay healthy this year. Image from The Rebel Walk

Linebacker: Things haven’t really changed from last year. Ole Miss will once again have a linebacking corps that would rank somewhere in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt Conference. The leading tackler from last year’s team, DeMarquis Gates is gone. Back is Detric Bing-Dukes (6-1, 255) who is a massive linebacker and runs like it, too. Not a lot of talent or depth here. The Ole Miss staff did go out and sign five quality three- and four-star linebackers in this class, but look for Ole Miss safeties to be making a lot of tackles this season.

Bing-Dukes is one of the few experienced linebackers this year. Image from the Oxford Eagle.

Defensive Backs: This position group is pedestrian at best, which is actually an improvement from linebacker and defensive line. Ole Miss actually did decent in defending the pass last season, ranking 52^nd nationally in passing yards allowed per game (Ole Miss rushing defense, meanwhile, finished 124^th nationally). C.J. Moore and Zedrick Woods return for their senior years. Both were solid prospects coming into Ole Miss, but both have somewhat disappointed Ole Miss fans. D.D. Bowie moves to cornerback after being recruited as a four-star wide receiver. He could be a shot in the arm for the corner position.

Zedrick Woods will be a crucial part of this defense. Image from Ole Miss Athletics

Special Teams

Gary Wunderlich is gone as kicker for Ole Miss, which stings. Luke Logan will take over kicking responsibilities, while Mac Brown will take punting duties. AJ Brown will probably returns kicks, but don’t be surprised if freshman Elijah Moore gets some shots. He is elusive, which should help as a punt returner.

Coaching Staff

Matt Luke is the full-time guy now. He will count on Phil Longo (offensive coordinator) and Wesley McGriff (defensive coordinator) to call the shots. Longo should be aggressive in the passing offense, and McGriff had some success while coaching at Auburn. But this is a different beast.

Biggest Strength: Wide Receiver –This is possibly the best wide receiving corps not only in the SEC, but in the country. A.J. Brown is a millionaire walking.

Biggest Weakness: The Entire Defense – Tied would probably be the running back position, but that can be masked by an all right offensive line and dynamic passing attack. There is no hiding this defense. Best case scenario is the defensive ends play mediocre football, Benito Jones plays out of his mind at defensive tackle, the linebackers literally just maintain gap discipline, and Zedrick Woods plays like an All-SEC safety. If that happens, Ole Miss might finish ranked inside the top 100 defenses in the country. If not, this will be one of the worst defenses in the history of SEC football (I exaggerate, but not really).

Offensive, Defensive, and Freshman Players of the Year

 Offensive: Jordan Ta’amu. Obviously, the receivers and the veteran offensive lineman will play well this year, but I think Ta’amu will play really solid football. He knows that he is just a few mistakes away from being benched for Coral, and has the experience and confidence needed to play the position. After a 300-yard performance against Texas Tech in week one, look for Ta’amu to stay on pace for over 3,000 yards passing.

Defensive: Vernon Dasher. Ever heard of him? Most haven’t either. Dasher is a JUCO signee that will man a position similar to DeMarquis Gates last season (hybrid between the nickel back and an outside linebacker). After watching his tape, I think he has the speed needed to make plays in the SEC West. He is my dark horse candidate for Defensive Player of the Year for the Rebels this year.

Freshman: All of the Freshman Linebackers. By the end of the season, it would not surprise me if Ole Miss was starting two freshman linebackers. This position group is awful. Matt Luke might as well throw in some guys that have some talent and some speed and ask them to mature quickly.

Schedule Breakdown and Projected Wins and Losses

 Win – Texas Tech

Win – Southern Illinois

Alabama – Loss

Win – Kent State

At LSU – Loss

Win – UL-Monroe

Win – at Arkansas

Auburn – Loss

South Carolina – Loss

At Texas A&M – Loss

Win – At Vanderbilt

Mississippi State – Loss

 Final Record: 6-6 (2-6)  

The Final Word

If Ole Miss is to get back to six wins, this offense is going to have to be electric. The teams that they will beat in the SEC (Arkansas and Vanderbilt) will be so inept at scoring points that Ole Miss’s porous defense might be good enough to make a few stops. But teams that have defenses that can hold Ole Miss to under 28 points (Alabama, LSU, Auburn, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State) will all score enough to win. Look out for two games that might be upset wins for Ole Miss. LSU has an offense that might not be able to out-score Ole Miss. If Ole Miss can find a way to score 27/28 points in Tiger Stadium, they might just win the game. The second potential upset is South Carolina. The Gamecocks will be coming off the Tennessee game (always a big game for South Carolina) while Ole Miss will be coming off a bye. If this is a sleepy, noon kickoff in Oxford, Ole Miss might just steal one from the Gamecocks.