by Christopher Paschal

4th – SEC East

Columbia, MO | Memorial Stadium (71, 168) | 2017 Record: 7-6 (4-4)

It was a tale of two halves of the season for the Missouri Tigers in 2017.  Through the first six games of the 2017 season, it looks as if Barry Odom was on his way out of Columbia, Missouri. The Tigers were 1-5 and had been beaten like a drum in four of those five losses. But a mid-season bye week and easy wins over Idaho and Connecticut got the season back on track for the Tigers, and Missouri promptly won four straight over SEC opponents to finish with seven regular season wins.

This year, the Tigers bring back key contributors to an offense that finished 2017 as one of the best in the country, but lose the brains behind the operation in offensive coordinator Josh Huepel, who was named head coach of UCF this past winter. Huepel’s replacement? None other than Derek Dooley, a cult hero here at Front Porch Football. The only problem is that Derek Dooley has never been an offensive coordinator. What Dooley lacks in play calling experience, though, he makes up for in his ability to relay NFL schemes and concepts to this already dynamic offense. Dooley spent the 2013 – 2017 with the Dallas Cowboys, and he hopes to mix in a little of what he learned with the Cowboys into this Big 12-style offense. We will see how Dooley does long-term in Missouri, but at least in 2018, I see this offense maintaining its high level of productivity.

The man. The myth. The Dooley. Image from USA Today.

Offense

Quarterbacks: Drew Lock ( 6-4, 225) might be the best quarterback in this league – kind of. Lock is very much a product of the system that he plays in, and the dude puts up some great numbers. Last season, Lock passed for close to 4,000 yards and 44 touchdowns. You don’t see that very often in the SEC. What’s even more impressive is Missouri consciously rushes the football, unlike other pass-happy offenses. The biggest concern with Lock is that when things were going well for him, they were going really well (five games in which Lock passed for over 300 yards), but when things were not going well for him, it was a disaster (South Carolina, Purdue). In fact, in six games last season, Lock completed less than 55% of his passes, and in four of those, he completed less than half. And in ten of the 13 games Lock played in last year, he threw at least one interception. Don’t get me wrong – the guy is a great quarterback, but this gunslinger isn’t necessarily the type of quarterback that is going to win you big-time, tough games in the SEC. Arkansas was the only close win under Lock, and against some of the better teams Lock faced (South Carolina, Purdue, Auburn, Georgia, Texas) he seemed like a fish out of water.

Drew Lock enters his senior season. Image from SEC Country

Running Back: Missouri’s leading rusher from 2017, Ish Witter, departed after rushing for over 1,000 yards last season, but Missouri returns two solid backs in Damarea Crockett (5-11, 225) and Larry Rountree, III (5-10, 210). Let’s start with Crockett, and I am going to be brutally honest. There are a lot more talented backs in this conference than Crockett. The beauty about Crockett is he plays well above his ability. Crockett does not have great speed and he runs too upright to effectively run with power, but in many ways his vision rivals that of Pittsburgh Steelers running back Leveon Bell. Crockett, like Bell, does an excellent job of reading the blocks in front of him and allowing the blocks to happen before hitting the line of scrimmage, which is a great trait to have behind this excellent run blocking offensive line. To his credit, Crockett is pretty elusive and does a good job of shaking defenders.

Damarea Crockett returns after missing the back half of 2017’s season. Image from USA Today.

Rountree has a little more speed to him, and runs behind his pads a little bit better, but it is hard to judge how good Rountree really is, seeing as his best games and most carries came late in the season against pretty pathetic defenses. Rountree was under-recruited coming out of Raleigh, North Carolina, but if Rountree can build on his solid freshman campaign, Missouri will feature a solid rushing attack to compliment Lock in the passing game.

Wide Receiver: This was the second-best passing attack in the SEC last season, and part of that was due to how good J’Mon Moore was last season. But Moore is no longer with the Tigers after being picked up in the NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers. Missouri does return solid contributors from last season’s team in Johnathon Johnson (5-10, 185), Emanuel Hall (6-3, 200), Nate Brown (6-3, 210), Richaud Floyd (5-11, 190), and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (6-5, 260). Missouri also adds firepower at the receiver position. Look for Harry Ballard (JUCO signee) and freshman Kam Scott (6-2, 170) to come in and contribute immediately. Scott could use some time to develop and gain weight, but he has great hands and has decent straight-line speed. He’s a fun guy to watch with the ball in his hands, because with his long strides it looks as if he effortlessly runs away from defenders.

Emanuel Hall comes back as a great deep threat. Image from Columbia Missourian.

Offensive Line: This is a really good starting five. All have had significant experience playing against SEC defensive lines, and four of the five projected starters are juniors or seniors. And these boys are big. At right tackle, Paul Adams (6-6, 315) was an under-recruited kid coming out of Nashville, TN. At right guard, Tre’Vour Wallace-Simms (6-5, 340) is a mauler that hails from East St. Louis, and he plays like it. Watch him play and it is obvious that this is a bad dude. Simms reminds me a lot of former LSU guard Trai Turner. Like Turner, Simms has a great motor, and he finishes blocks.

At center, Missouri returns Trystan Colon-Castillo (6-4, 315), who started last season as a freshman. Look for him to improve on his freshman campaign this season. At left guard, Missouri has another big boy in Kevin Pendleton (6-4, 340). Pendleton has started a lot of football games for this Missouri offensive line. And then at left tackle, Missouri has a junior from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania that goes by the name of Yasir Durant (6-7, 340), who went the JUCO route but is now entering his second season at Missouri. Overall, a very solid starting five. The biggest concern for Missouri is their lack of proven depth behind these five, which is always a scary idea in a league as physical as the SEC.

Defense

Defensive Line: This defensive line has one stud, one possible stud, and a whole lot of unproven, inexperienced players around them. Let’s start with the stud, Terry Beckner, Jr. Beckner (6-4, 305) is a senior that hails from East St. Louis, and when healthy, he is one of the best defensive tackles in the business. He was a former five-star prospect, a rarity on this Missouri roster, who has the motor, athleticism (7.0 sacks last year), and size needed to be a first round draft pick in 2019.

The possible stud is another former blue-chip prospect in Texas transfer, Jordan Elliot (6-4, 325). Elliot is quick, athletic, flexible, and a disruptive presence. The only problem is that he has only shown those skills in practice and not on the field. If Elliot is as good as he is hyped up to be, and he plays like it, Missouri may have one of the best defensive tackle tandems in the SEC. Besides those two, though, things don’t look too promising for Missouri. In the SEC, you have to have defensive ends that can be physical at the point of attack and fast enough to string out zone plays and sweeps. Does Missouri have that? We will have to wait and see, but following their recruiting classes as closely as I have, my answer is that they probably don’t.

Jordan Elliot (left) transfers in from Texas. Image from Icon Sportswire.

Linebacker: This position group is much like the offensive line. Superb starting talent and experience with little behind it. Missouri has three returning starters at linebacker, and all are poised for solid 2018 campaigns. It all starts with Terez Hall (6-2, 230). Hall is the most disruptive of the three. Last season, Hall recorded 12.5 TFL and had three games where he tallied ten tackles or more.

Next to Hall is 2017’s leading tackler, Cale Garrett (6-3, 235). Last season, Garrett recorded 105 tackles, three sacks, and two interceptions. Garrett was a lightly recruited prospect that plays with a chip on his shoulder. Watch the tape (below) – the dude flies around the field. The most dynamic and versatile linebacker is Brandon Lee (6-2, 225). Lee plays with reckless abandon. He tackles anything that moves, defends well on the perimeter, and he even returned an interception for a touchdown last season. Finally, look out for 2018 signee Chad Bailey (6-0, 235). He plays fast and physical, and Missouri was able to hold off a late push by Ole Miss to sign him.

Defensive Backs: Missouri was one of the worst passing defenses in the entire country last season. On top of that, the Tigers lost both starting safeties from a year ago. Another issue the Tigers must address is that they forced very few turnovers in 2017. In fact, Missouri ranked at the very bottom of the SEC in turnover margin last season. And help is not on the way. The 2018 defensive backs that Missouri was able to sign were underwhelming.

Special Teams

Upperclassman return for Missouri at both kicker and punter. Kicker Tucker McCann was solid for Missouri last season, making 15 of 17 attempted field goals. This roster possesses plenty of options at kick and punt return, including Richaud Floyd who returned to kicks for touchdowns last season.

Tucker McCann returns after a successful 2017 season. Image from Missouri Athletics.

Coaching Staff

The Derek Dooley hire is going to either make or break the Barry Odom era at Missouri. The one thing that keeps Missouri in SEC conference games is their offense, and the keys to that offense have been handed over to a guy who did not do well in his last stint in this conference. Odom is considered a defensive-minded guy, but there has been little to show in that department so far.

Barry Odom enters his fourth season 11-14. Image from Missouri Athletics.

Biggest Strength: Offensive Production – Missouri led the SEC in yards per game last season, but they also took advantage of defenses like Tennessee and Florida that were having historically bad seasons. In their six losses, only against Kentucky did their offense keep pace with the opposing team’s offense. This year, Missouri is going to have to put up a lot of points in every game, not just most of their games.

Biggest Weakness: Depth – Missouri has not recruited at the same pace as other SEC programs. They just haven’t. The 2018 recruiting crop coming out of St. Louis this season had some studs. Missouri couldn’t land any of them. Then there is Mario Goodrich. Goodrich was one of the best prospects in the state of Missouri last season. Clemson landed him. Clemson. A school almost 1,000 miles away landed him. I don’t know if this staff just doesn’t put a heavy emphasis on recruiting or if it can’t recruit, but Gary Pinkel’s players are about to be out of this program. What happens then?

Offensive, Defensive, and Freshman Players of the Year

 Offensive: Drew Lock. He will put up Heisman numbers. Hard not to have him as the Offensive POY. But will he win the close games…

Defensive: Terry Beckner, Jr. “The dude is going to be a future NFL Pro Bowler. One of the best players on this roster and in the SEC.” I wrote that about Mississippi State’s Jeffrey Simmons. It applies to Beckner, too. Both of these guys are going to be studs at the next level.

Freshman: Daniel Parker. Missouri signed two defensive ends in the 2018 recruiting class. One was Trajan Jeffcoat, who didn’t have a single SEC offer outside of Missouri – and he grew up in the shadow of Williams-Brice Stadium. (For the record, I think Jeffcoat will actually be a solid contributor as an upperclassman, but not as a freshman.) The other was Daniel Parker, who landed other Power-5 offers, including from Iowa and Nebraska. He will be thrust into the starting defensive line at some point this season.

 Schedule Breakdown and Projected Wins and Losses

 Win – Tennessee-Martin

Win – Wyoming

Win – at Purdue

Georgia – Loss

at South Carolina – Loss

at Alabama – Loss

Win – Memphis

Win – Kentucky

at Florida – Loss

Win – Vanderbilt

Win – at Tennessee

Win – Arkansas

Final Record: 8-4 (4-4)

 The Final Word

This is the most generous prediction I have ever given, probably as an apology for the years I crapped on Missouri for not being located in the South or the East. I have Missouri winning a lot of games to close the season and a lot of games to open the season. Wyoming has turned into a decent non-Power 5 program and Purdue thumped Missouri last season. I have both down as wins. I also have Missouri beating Memphis, one of the best teams in the American Conference. Memphis is very capable of beating an SEC opponent. I then have Missouri winning in Neyland Stadium. Last season’s Tennessee team had given up by that point in the season. Jeremy Pruitt’s team will not have given up by that point this season. All-in-all, Missouri has very little room for error in this prediction, and with road tests at South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida, and a home visit by the Georgia Bulldogs, I think eight wins is the ceiling this program can hit in year three of the Barry Odom era.