by Christopher Paschal.

5^th – SEC East

Lexington, KY | Kroger Field (61,000) | 2017 Record: 7-6 (4-4)

First of all, shame on Kentucky for going the corporate route and throwing the words “Kroger Field” on the side of the stadium. Is this the NFL or the SEC? Second, I promise I will temper my rage against the Wildcats for selling out to the corporate sponsor and assess them fairly. And I can fairly say that Kentucky is taking a step back this year. Last year, I thought the Wildcats had the talent in the back end of the defense and the offensive line needed to win 8 games. I missed that prediction by a game, due to a horrific second half of the season which saw the Wildcats lose five of their final seven games. This year, the Wildcats return most of their defense and offensive line. However, they remain miserably behind the rest of the SEC along the defensive line. Plus, they will break in a quarterback without any experience. Could be an interesting season for the Wildcats.

Offense

 Quarterbacks: It wasn’t like Stephen Johnson was good, but he was a two-year starter. Last year, Johnson threw for only 10 touchdowns (he did rush for another five) and passed for just only 2,305 yards. All that being said, he will still be missed by Kentucky. In the conference games they had a realistic chance at winning – South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt – Johnson was 4-2. This year, Kentucky will look to sophomore Terry Wilson (6-3, 205) to try to replicate those same type of successes. The only problem is that Terry Wilson (a JUCO signee) has never taken a snap of FBS football, let alone SEC football. Wilson did not receive a single SEC offer coming out of high school, and was only recruited by other programs as desperate and quarterback-starved as Kentucky. Wilson was recruited because he is known as a playmaker that can do special things with his legs. But to carry an offense in the SEC, the quarterback needs to make big-time throws. I don’t think Wilson is capable of that. Behind him is the equally as green sophomore Gunner Hoak.

Running Back: If the quarterback can’t throw the ball, hand the ball off to Benny Snell, Jr. If the quarterback turns out to be the next Peyton Manning, still hand the ball off to Benny Snell, Jr. Why? Because he might just be the best back in this conference. Snell (5-11, 225) is the definition of a workhorse. He rushed for over 1,300 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Snell carried the ball over 260 times and averaged over five yards per carry. He has excellent vision and patience, coupled with top-end agility, bulldozer-type power, and a knack for falling forward. The man is a stud (he reminds me a lot of Leveon Bell).

Benny Snell is the definition of a workhorse. Image from Kentucky Athletics.

Behind Snell is the shifty and elusive senior from South Georgia, Sihiem King (5-9, 170). King rushed for over 350 yards last year. He will do that and much more this year. Kentucky has a freshman coming in by the name of Kavosiey Smoke from Wetumpka, Alabama. He may have only been a three-star, but this kid can play. I look for him to be the next featured back at Kentucky.

Wide Receiver: Part of the reason Terry Wilson will have such a hard time completing passes and throwing touchdowns is the quality of Kentucky’s wide receiving corps. Hellen Keller could probably be the third best option. The biggest wild card is Lynn Bowden. The dude was a legitimate, highly recruited prospect in the 2017 recruiting cycle. Yet, he only racked up 17 catches last year, none of which were touchdowns. He has the skill, size (6-1, 200), and teammates (he should definitely be the go-to receiver) to put up impressive numbers as a sophomore. But I need to see it before I believe all the hype. Dorian Baker returns from injury for his senior season. Contrary to what Wildcat fans will tell you, he is at best a solid second option.

Lynn Bowden needs to turn potential into production. Image from USA Today.

Tavin Richardson returns as Kentucky’s leading pass catcher with a mere 27 receptions and one touchdown. Unless Bowden explodes onto the scene and becomes one of the best receivers in the SEC, Kentucky’s passing offense will be just as much hindered by the receivers as it is the quarterback. Even the Wildcat’s best receiving option, tight end CJ Conrad, is coming off shoulder surgery and an injured foot.

Tavin Richardson led the team in receptions last year with only 27. Image from Kentucky Athletics.

Offensive Line: I was high on this offensive line last season, and they came on strong to finish the 2017 season. This season, this offensive line should take yet another step forward. The right side is manned by seniors Bunchy Stallings (guard) and George Asafo-Adjei (tackle). Stallings is a bulldog in the old school sense. He finishes his blocks, he isn’t that big and isn’t that talented, but he has a motor that has helped establish himself as one of the better run blockers on the team. I love watching him play the guard position. Drake Johnson returns at center, and Landon Young looks set to finally live up to his five-star (that’s right, five-star) talent. Young, according to 247 Sports, was the top ranked player out of the state of Kentucky, but he decided to stay home over offers from Alabama, Auburn, and Ohio State. If he can live up to his reputation, look out, this rushing attack might have gotten that much scarier. And this unit is only getting better. Kentucky pulled in four solid prospect in the 2018 recruiting cycle.

With a good offensive line and fantastic running back, Kentucky is a threat on the ground. Image from the Garden Island.

Defense

Defensive Line: Last year, I wrote, “The Wildcats were horrendous at run defense last year. They were absolutely bullied up front. Kentucky gave up over 225 rushing yards a game. There are 128 schools in the FBS. 110 of them were better than Kentucky at run defense. That starts up front. They don’t have SEC-caliber players up front. It’s that simple. Where they have talent, it doesn’t perform. Where they don’t have talent, it shows.” This year feels a lot like last year.

Paschal moves from LB to DE this season. Image from Lexington Herald Leader.

While the Wildcats did improve in run defense rankings (79^th nationally instead of 110^th), a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that both Tennessee and Florida regressed (in Tennessee’s case, regressed horrifically) as rushing offenses. This defensive line is not as talented as other SEC East contenders (Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia), and it might not even be as good as Missouri’s or Tennessee’s. Plus, help is not on the way. Kentucky signed two defensive lineman to a roster that only returns nine. Vanderbilt has better depth up front. One thing is for sure, Joshua Paschal is a beast, and moving him from linebacker to defensive end should make Kentucky more of a threat rushing the passer.

Linebacker: Unlike the defensive line, the linebacking corps is SEC-talented. This is one of the best starting four linebacking groups in the SEC. Josh Allen returns as the leading sacker (7) from a year ago, Denzil Ware returns for a senior season that should be his best, Jordan Jones is possibly the most underrated, but fastest, and Kash Daniel takes over at middle linebacker as a special teams warrior (watch the tape, the dude can fly).

Josh Allen is an NFL caliber player. Image from USA Today.

If Kentucky is to win ball games in the SEC, it will come down to this position group. Although these defensive backs are talented they are inconsistent. This is the most consistent position group defensively, and a lot of them have NFL contracts on the line, especially Josh Allen. If these guys play like All-SEC type backers, Kentucky makes a bowl game. If not, they may have trouble winning more than a game in the SEC. Look for freshman Christopher Oats to get some early playing time at outside linebacker. He has the size (6-4, 220) and talent (Ohio State tried to steal him before National Signing Day) to make an impact.

Defensive Backs: What happened, guys? Last year, one of the reasons why I was so high on this Kentucky team was because of the defensive backs. I went as far as to write that this unit should “cause major problems in the passing game” and that they have the “size and talent to shut down any receiving corps in the SEC.” I wrote that about a pass defense that ranked 103^rd nationally. Wow. The good news is that almost everyone returns from that secondary. Derrick Baity (6-3, 190) and Chris Westry (6-4, 200) both return at corner. Although they have size and speed, they need to play better. Mike Edwards returns at safety where he led the team in tackles and in interceptions. All four projected starters are seniors. If the front seven can generate some pressure, maybe this secondary can get their act together.

Mike Edwards returns after leading the team in interceptions last year. Image from SEC Country.

Special Teams

Austin MacGinnis is gone, and that really hurts. MacGinnis led the Wildcats in kicking in back-to-back years, and he kicked some clutch field goals (looking at you Lamar Jackson). Last year he finished 22-28 in field goal attempts and knocked through every single PAT.  New kicker and new punter spells trouble for Kentucky, but maybe the Wildcats can generate some points with kick returner Lynn Bowden.

Coaching Staff

Mark Stoops has taken Kentucky to back-to-back bowl games. That’s no small feat. But the East is only getting tougher. This is a big year for Stoops. If he is able to beat South Carolina at home and make it to another bowl game, he may be able to keep his head above water. I’m nervous for this coaching staff. We are going on year number six. Yet, all Stoops can hang his hat on is a winning streak over South Carolina, a couple of bowl appearances, and a win over Lamar Jackson (the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner). If things go south this year, don’t be surprised if Stoops heads into 2019 on a piping hot seat. I will say this though – the level at which Mark Stoops recruits the state of Ohio is incredible. He literally competes with Urban Meyer (and sometimes wins) on the recruiting trail. Very impressive. And now that controversy surrounds Ohio State, Stoops could snag some impressive recruits in 2019.

Stoops has some heat entering the 2018 season. Image from Kentucky Sports Radio.

Biggest Strength: Running Back – When you have possibly the best running back in the SEC, you know you have a huge strength in the backfield. The question is how much can Benny Snell do? Can the Wildcats ride him to another bowl appearance and a couple of upset wins, or will they ride him into the ground along with their season?

Biggest Weakness: Winning the Close Game – Remember when I praised Stephen Johnson for winning the close, winnable games? That won’t happen this year. Between this defensive line and this passing game, I don’t see Kentucky winning the one-score game. If I am in a tight, fourth quarter game, I am taking the quarterback and defensive line tandems of South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M every time.

Offensive, Defensive, and Freshman Players of the Year

 Offensive: Benny Snell. Am I boring you yet? Benny Snell shows up yet again, because when you might be one of the best offensive players in the country, you are definitely the best offensive player on your own roster.

Defensive: Joshua Paschal. This might sound a bit dramatic, but the entire season rests in his hands. The 6-3, 275 pound defensive end was one of the highest sought-after recruits in the country two years ago. Now he enters his sophomore season at a new position (linebacker last year) and with huge expectations. If he can record, let’s say 6-7 sacks, and can help shore up this defensive line run defense, Kentucky will be vastly improved on defense. But if he fails to perform to those types of standards, the Wildcats will regress or at least remain stagnant on a defense that cannot remain stagnant.

Freshman: Chance Poore. Poore is a kicker from Anderson, SC. And he has the weight of the world on his shoulders. While trying to replace one of the best kickers in SEC football history he is trying to do that as a true freshman. I think he will perform well. Do I have any basis for that? No, but I needed a Freshman Player of the Year.

Schedule Breakdown and Projected Wins and Losses

 Win – Central Michigan

At Florida – Loss

Win – Murray State

Mississippi State – Loss

South Carolina – Loss

At Texas A&M – Loss

Win – Vanderbilt

At Missouri – Loss

Georgia – Loss

Win – At Tennessee

Win – Middle Tennessee State

Win – at Louisville

Final Record: 6-6 (2-6)

 The Final Word

It is very critical for Kentucky to win the games they are supposed to win (Central Michigan, Murray State, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee) and win a couple that are tossups (South Carolina, at Missouri, at Tennessee, Louisville). Louisville is a rivalry game in which you can throw out the records (can I make three references to Lamar Jackson in one preview? I think I can). Tennessee is the biggest tossup game on this schedule. While Kentucky will be coming off the Georgia game Tennessee will be coming off of a home game against an atrocious Charlotte team, which makes me very nervous. This will be a true battle of who does it better, Jeremy Pruitt or Mark Stoops. Both are tenacious, defensive-minded coaches that will have to get everything they can out of their team to win this game. I do think the winning streak ends over South Carolina. It won’t be a pretty game, but Terry Wilson will make key mistakes in the second half for the Gamecocks to sneak out with a win.