Vanderbilt: 2016 Preseason Preview

by Chris Paschal

Many experts and pundits predict Vanderbilt will finish anywhere from fifth to third overall in the East. Some even predict they will be bowl eligible by season’s end. And some go as far as to predict Vandy will… contend for the East?! 

That’s right, media members at this year’s SEC Media Days actually picked Vanderbilt to win the SEC East. Granted, the percentage of media members who predict this is roughly equivalent to the percentage of students accepted to Vanderbilt every year, but I digress.

I got tough news Vanderbilt fans, and no, it isn’t about the Big Bang Theory, so rest easy. Vandy is not winning the SEC East, and they are not making a bowl game.

Preseason Preview: Vanderbilt

Record: 4-8 (1-7)

If Vanderbilt is to become bowl eligible, then this season really comes down to two questions. First, can Vanderbilt win the games they are supposed to win? Vanderbilt cannot afford to lose to teams like Western Kentucky and Massachusetts like they did in years past. Second, can they beat the other SEC East cellar dwellers? If they can beat Missouri, Kentucky, and South Carolina, then they can afford a non-conference loss to Georgia Tech in Atlanta. However, I don’t see them beating Kentucky and predict they will drop another one either to South Carolina or Missouri.

Vanderbilt’s Biggest Strengths: 

1. Linebackers: I don’t care that Vanderbilt lost two great linebackers from last year’s team, because when you return one of the best linebackers in college football it really doesn’t matter. Zach Cunningham was a first team All-SEC linebacker last year and this year he is joined by Nigel Brown, the top tackler for Vanderbilt in 2014 before being injured in 2015. Add one of the highest ranked recruits in the 2015 class, Josh Smith, to the mix, and I think, Vanderbilt has as good of a linebacking corps as anyone in the SEC.
2. Defensive Secondary: Vanderbilt’s Defensive Backs are going to be pretty good this season, especially at corner back. Not only do they return both of their starters from last year’s team but they add Joejuan Williams, the jewel of the 2016 recruting class. A six foot three inch, four star recruit out of high school, Williams was wanted by everyone, including Alabama, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.
3. Derek Mason: This is Vanderbilt’s third season with Derek Mason and he has built a defense that can compete with any team in the conference. He has taken advantage of Vanderbilt student’s ability to learn complex schemes, and has developed a mindset and playbook that allows Vanderbilt to be competitive.

Biggest Concerns 

1. The Offense – Every aspect of this offense should be of concern to Vanderbilt fans. 
   • Quarterback: Their options are a quarterback who passed for less than fifty yards in three of his six starts (Kyle Shurmur) or a quarterback who played in only one game last year (Wade Freebeck).
   •  Running Back: Vanderbilt has one of the best players in all of the SEC in Ralph Webb, who now enters into his third season as a Commodore, but that is where it ends, and in the SEC you need depth in the backfield.
   • Wide Receiver: This is a position that simply lacks playmakers. Going through all of the options that will be at the Quarterback’s disposal: Darrius Sims, a Running Back turned Wide Receiver who is really best at returning kicks, C. J. Duncan who is returning from a torn Achilles, and who hasn’t played in a game in close to two years, Caleb Scott who caught 24 passes last year, and Tight End Jared Pinkney who is also returning from an injury after playing in one game last season. That leaves the leading pass catcher from last year’s team Trent Sherfield who had over 650 yards receiving. However, over a third of those yards came in a victory over Austin Peay, one of the worst programs in all of FCS, that’s right FCS, football.
   •  Offensive Line: Even though this is arguably the most talented position group on the team there are more questions than answers. The biggest problem is Vanderbilt is playing musical lineman, like seven year olds play musical chairs. Going into this season nobody, including Derek Mason, has any idea of who is starting and where. This offense, I think, will be the worst in the SEC.

Biggest Losses

1. Stephen Sheu (TE) – Top target in Vandy’s passing game
2. Stephen Weatherly (Outside LB) – Gone to the NFL Draft
3. Darreon Herring (Inside LB) – Second leading tackler (2015)
4. Spenser Pulley (Center) – One of the reasons the line is in limbo

Impact Players

1. Ralph Webb (RB) – One of the best backs in the SEC
2. Zach Cunningham (Inside LB) – Best player on the defense
3. Torren McGaster (CB) – Big, physical presence in the secondary
4. Justin Skule (OT) – The most talented lineman for Vandy
5. Joejuan Williams (CB) – If he produces, Vandy will be able to recruit against the big boys of the SEC

Biggest Game of the Year:                     Home Opener vs. South Carolina

This is the first SEC conference game of the season. If Vanderbilt can beat South Carolina at home on September 1st, which is very possible, then there are five other wins on this schedule and they can make it to a bowl game. If Vanderbilt loses, Derek Mason will lose his job by season’s end, and all the momentum James Franklin built between 2011-2013 will be irrelevant.